The amount of capital invested in options has exceeded that of futures for the first time since 2023, signaling a clear preference among speculators: the structure of Bitcoin derivatives markets has changed.
Red for the holidays!
As the price of BTC consolidates between $85,000 and $95,000, the likelihood of a short-lived technical rebound increases. As the weeks go by, the market is becoming increasingly entrenched in a context of the end of the bull market. Demand on the spot markets remains limited, and liquidity in the derivatives markets comes mainly from options, which is insufficient to fuel a serious recovery.
As 2025 draws to a close, it seems essential to revisit an interesting dynamic that has gone unnoticed in recent months: the structure of the derivatives markets has changed profoundly in recent months. Let’s take stock.
Diversified speculation
Derivatives market players have many tools at their disposal to speculate while managing their risk. Historically, futures contracts have been very popular, thanks in particular to the services of giants such as Bybit, Binance, and the now defunct FTX.
These contracts attract significant volumes of capital, reaching nearly 480,000 BTC in open positions in December 2024. However, this number is down in 2025, with nearly 350,000 BTC currently.
While this decline can be partly explained by major liquidations in recent months, it is possible that demand for this type of instrument is shifting elsewhere.
Note: these data do not take into account the open interest of Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures contracts, estimated at nearly 125,000 BTC.
Perpetual contracts, unlike futures contracts, do not have expiration dates. They are also one of the favorite instruments of speculators and have maintained open interest of 300,000 to 400,000 BTC since the end of 2022. This stability over several years suggests that perpetual contracts remain a preferred tool for investors, despite a notable drop in 2025, as with futures.
On the other hand, options recorded continued growth in open interest in 2024 and 2025, to the point of becoming the dominant segment of Bitcoin derivatives markets in terms of capital invested.
As options are widely used by traditional financial institutions for risk management, this movement suggests the arrival of new players in the derivatives markets.
Whereas retail investors more often use simple futures and perpetual contracts, institutional investors hedge with strategies that are more sophisticated than simple positions on futures contracts.
Note: An option is a financial contract that gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a defined asset at a predetermined price (called the strike price) on a specific date (the expiration date).
The enthusiasm for options in 2025 is even more apparent when the three types of contracts are measured side by side, with a clear upward trend contrasting with the declines in open interest for futures and perpetuals.
The amount of capital invested in options exceeds that of futures (including CME) for the first time since 2023, standing at nearly 650,000 BTC, signaling a clear preference among certain operators for this type of financial instrument.
Considerable volumes
Derivatives markets generate impressive volumes of capital. Despite the decline in activity in futures and perpetual contracts, they are estimated at nearly 400,000 BTC per day, compared to tens of thousands for options.
The contrast with the total volume of spot exchanges (around 100,000 BTC) is significant, meaning that there are now more “paper bitcoins”—financial positions—than bitcoins actually held on spot exchanges.
This phenomenon can be interpreted as a sign of the maturing BTC market, which is opening up to new capital flows and new investment methods that go beyond the limits of its spot market.
It is interesting to note that the rise of the derivatives markets was felt as early as the beginning of 2023, when the total volume of derivatives contracts exceeded the total daily volume of spot exchanges at around 500,000 BTC per day.
Since then, the volumes moved by the derivatives markets have been dominant, creating a mass of “paper bitcoins” capable of influencing the spot price of BTC.
In the future, we will delve deeper into the analysis of signals offered by derivatives markets, particularly in terms of options markets, which hold important information about the behavior of institutional capital.
Summary of this on-chain analysis of Bitcoin (BTC)
In 2025, interest in options reached an unprecedented level, with a clear upward trend in open interest, contrasting with declines in open interest in futures and perpetuals.
The amount of capital invested in options exceeds that of futures (including CME) for the first time since 2023, reaching nearly 650,000 BTC, signaling a clear preference among certain operators for this type of financial instrument.
As options are known to be used in many risk management strategies by traditional financial institutions, this suggests that a new range of participants is entering the derivatives markets with strategies that are more sophisticated than simple positions on futures contracts.
