What if Bitcoin’s cyclical peak has not yet been reached? While many analysts consider the $126,000 level reached in early October 2025 to be the high point of the current cycle, several indicators suggest that this may simply be an intermediate plateau. Two main arguments support this hypothesis: the trend toward longer post-halving cycles and the macroeconomic context embodied by the copper/gold ratio, a leading indicator of the global economic cycle. Here is Vincent Ganne’s technical analysis of BTC.
The hypothesis of an extended cycle at the beginning of 2026
Historically, each Bitcoin bull cycle, measured from its halving, has been longer than the previous one. The 2012 cycle ended 366 days after the halving, the 2016 cycle after 526 days, and the 2020 cycle after 546 days.
This trend toward prolongation reflects a phenomenon of market maturation: as the price of Bitcoin rises and its investor base expands, price movements become slower, more structured, and require more time to reach their peak.
Following this logic, the current cycle, which began after the 2024 halving, may not have reached its end on October 6 and could extend into the first quarter of 2026.
The promising message of the copper/gold ratio
Furthermore, on a macroeconomic level, a compelling argument reinforces this hypothesis: the dynamics of the copper/gold ratio. The copper/gold ratio is a reliable barometer of the global economic cycle. Copper, the industrial metal par excellence, reflects the strength of global economic activity, while gold, a safe haven asset, reflects caution and the search for security. When the ratio rises, it signals a resurgence of growth and risk appetite, conditions often associated with bullish phases in the equity and cryptoasset markets. Conversely, a falling ratio reflects an economic slowdown and a defensive phase for investors. However, Bitcoin’s historic highs (December 2013, December 2017, November 2021) coincided with the highs of the Copper/Gold ratio.
Today, this ratio is at historically low levels, marked by a bullish divergence on the RSI, suggesting a potential trend reversal in the coming months. If this macro signal is confirmed, it could accompany, or even precede, a final major bullish movement in Bitcoin, thus extending the current cycle until 2026.
In conclusion, it seems premature to say that the peak of the cycle linked to the 2024 halving is already behind us. The macroeconomic context does not yet show the usual characteristics of a cycle peak, and the internal logic of Bitcoin cycles suggests a time extension based on the number of days that have passed since the halving.
Thus, a scenario of an extended cycle, peaking between the end of 2025 and the middle of 2026, would fit perfectly with the historical and structural continuity of the market. If this is the case, the current phase would not be the end, but an intermediate correction. This hypothesis holds true as long as the major support levels are not broken, i.e., the $95,000–$100,000 range.
