October 10 will go down as one of the most violent days in crypto history. A tsunami of liquidations swept through the market, leaving some projects in serious trouble. Aptos and Bittensor were among the hardest hit. Why did they fall so sharply? Is their future compromised?
Extreme conditions for the crypto market
The crypto market is characterized by much higher volatility than traditional assets (stocks, real estate, etc.). Investors know this. Yet even the most cautious profiles suffered considerable losses on October 10.
This is the largest sell-off ever seen in the crypto world. Neither the collapse of FTX nor that of Terra Luna caused such a tidal wave. This phenomenon is revealing. The majority of projects have been hit hard by this extreme volatility. Some will manage to recover, slowly rebuilding their credibility and investor confidence. For others, it is already too late: the fall has been so brutal that a comeback seems impossible. In this article, we will analyze two cryptocurrencies that were severely affected in November. We will highlight the key factors that contributed to the fall of the APT token and the TAO token:
Aptos: -36.6%
Aptos is a layer 1 blockchain born from the ashes of Diem, a crypto project abandoned by Facebook (Meta) under regulatory pressure. Based on the Move language, Aptos is an ultra-fast blockchain. It offers significantly lower transaction fees than the Ethereum blockchain, making it relevant in the high-frequency trading sector.
As shown in the chart above, the price of the APT token has never recovered from the crash on October 10. Over the last 30 days, its value has fallen by nearly 37%. Since the week of October 10, the drop has reached 63%, or nearly two-thirds of its capitalization.
While we are discussing a technical aspect here, other fundamental and on-chain factors also help explain this collapse.
Aptos is often referred to as a “VC Chain” due to its massive venture capital funding. According to DropsTab, the project has raised over $350 million in two funding rounds. Of the five rounds in total, three remain opaque in terms of their terms and conditions.
These fundraisers come with a trade-off: institutional investors gradually recoup their investment by reselling their tokens, with the aim of making a profit (or limiting their losses).
This process, known as token unlocks, acts as a drag on the token. If demand does not offset the increase in supply due to unlocks, the price falls automatically.
Each month, 11.31 million APT tokens are released, further accentuating this imbalance between supply and demand.
Furthermore, the on-chain data for the Aptos blockchain does not work in its favor:
- From October to November, fees generated by the blockchain fell by 32.4%;
- Over the same period, the trading volume of the APT token fell by more than 33.5%.
In summary, Aptos is going through a period of severe turbulence. The token has broken through its technical support levels, and neither tokenomics nor on-chain activity seem capable of reversing the trend.
Bittensor (TAO): -40.2%
Launched in November 2021, Bittensor is a project that combines artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain. Each Bittensor participant (individuals, software, or equipment) freely contributes to the system by providing AI models, data, or computing power.
Paradoxically, the price of the TAO token had weathered the shock of October 10 well, even beginning a recovery the very next day. However, in November, its value fell by more than 40%. It is currently testing a major technical support level in weekly data—the last line of defense before a possible drop to $215.
It is important to provide some context for this decline: the entire crypto market performed poorly in November, with BTC down 13% and ETH down 17%. These are particularly difficult conditions, with few altcoins posting positive performances.
However, this is not the only possible explanation for the fall in TAO. Bittensor is reaching a crucial moment in its history. On December 12, Bittensor will experience its first halving.
In other words, the number of TAO issued each day will be halved, from 7,200 to 3,600. Although this type of event is generally considered beneficial in the long term for the appreciation of a cryptocurrency (less supply), it can also slow down the growth of the Bittensor ecosystem.
This is because network participants (miners, validators, etc.) will see their incentives (financial incentives) cut in half. Echoing this issue, data from the Token Terminal platform suggests that the number of core developers has fallen dramatically over the summer, from 70 people to a reduced team of less than 20:
Another worrying sign is that TAO’s trading volume has collapsed in recent weeks. It fell from $3.56 billion (week of October 13) to $1.01 billion at the end of November, a drop of 72%. This decline reflects a clear disengagement by traders.
In summary, Bittensor is at a key moment in its history. Between maintaining its technical support and adjusting its post-halving business model, the coming weeks will be crucial for the future of the project.
