Recent Bitcoin on-chain data points to continued bearish momentum on both short- and long-term time scales. With inflows close to zero in late November and early December, we cannot expect spot BTC ETFs to seriously stimulate a Bitcoin rebound. Find out what the on-chain analysis reveals.
Bitcoin’s plunge
As the price of BTC struggles to stay above $90,000, the likelihood of a dead cat bounce is increasing.
Indeed, since the market entered bear market territory, demand—particularly on spot markets—has been lacking, preventing Bitcoin from staging a solid rebound.
What do recent flows tell us about participant behavior? Let’s take a look!
Sustained bearish momentum
November 2025 saw a significant bearish performance (-17.5%) for the BTC price, similar to February of the same year.
While the scale of this decline remains moderate compared to previous bear markets, the impact on investor psychology remains significant, with sentiment shifting from euphoria to sustained pessimism in a matter of weeks.
This context prevents investors from maintaining their bullish bias, which is reflected in the supply/demand flows of the various BTC spot and futures markets.
The Bitcoin Momentum Oscillator (BMO) on-chain model, mentioned in our previous analyses, condenses market profitability signals to estimate BTC’s cyclical position and the progress of the current momentum.
- A value of 1 indicates that the market’s bullish momentum is reaching its peak, with very high profitability and intense profit-taking behavior, which is expressed near local and cyclical peaks;
- A value of -1 indicates that the market’s bearish momentum is reaching its limit, with very low profitability and intense loss-taking behavior, which contributes to the formation of local and cyclical lows.
Since the beginning of November, the BMO has been recording a value of -0.33, a moderate bearish signal indicating that the long-term trend of BTC continues to deteriorate.
Historically, these transitions into bearish territory accompany the end of bullish trends in the Bitcoin market, giving way to a period of prolonged decline in its price.
Regarding recent momentum, the STH-SOPR ratio tracks the spending behavior of recent entrants to gauge the strength of short-term momentum.
- Above 1, short-term investors are realizing profits in an optimistic and bullish environment.
- Below 1, short-term investors are realizing losses in a pessimistic and bearish environment.
With this indicator remaining below 1 since the loss of the $100,000 threshold, short-term momentum remains bearish and short-term investors are unable to get their heads above water.
Limited demand for Bitcoin?
In our analysis last week, we estimated that selling pressure on exchanges and Bitcoin ETFs was easing, without any major demand flows emerging.
On the spot BTC ETF side, the situation remains the same:
- The selling pressure of recent weeks has indeed slowed, facilitating market stabilization.
- Inflows at the end of November and beginning of December are almost zero, confirming that institutional buyers are reluctant to re-expose themselves to Bitcoin.
For the time being, ETFs cannot be expected to seriously stimulate a rebound in BTC, despite the fact that asset management giant Vanguard now allows crypto ETFs.
With regard to centralized spot exchanges, the reduction in selling pressure has turned into moderate demand flows, ranging between 1,000 BTC and 500 BTC per day over the last few days.
However, the trend appears to be slowing down. This dynamic will need to be closely monitored in the coming days and weeks to assess whether or not demand pressure from centralized spot exchanges is increasing.
On the Bybit and Binance futures markets, net flows are at a standstill, balancing out so that no clear directional bias is apparent.
For the moment, speculators seem divided between opening new long and short orders, while volatility is undermining highly leveraged positions.
Finally, there is now a major pool of liquidity above the current price, fueling hopes of a bullish recovery, potentially catalyzed by a short squeeze.
If the price manages to rise high enough to force the liquidation of shorts positioned up to $100,000, this could reignite the bullish momentum. Perhaps there is still hope for the BTC uptrend, while long positions are being liquidated in the short term.
Summary of this on-chain analysis of Bitcoin (BTC)
In summary, recent on-chain data points to continued bearish momentum for BTC on both short- and long-term time scales.
With inflows close to zero in late November and early December, ETFs cannot be expected to provide any serious stimulus for a BTC rebound.
As for centralized spot exchanges, the reduction in selling pressure has turned into moderate demand, ranging between 1,000 BTC and 500 BTC per day.
On the Bybit and Binance futures markets, net flows are at a standstill, balancing out so that no clear directional bias is apparent.
Finally, a major cluster of short liquidity around $100,000 is fueling hopes of a bullish recovery, potentially catalyzed by a short squeeze.
