The bullish structure in place since May is holding steady, while mining activity remains profitable and the financial stress on miners is currently negligible.
Bitcoin close to its highs
As the price of Bitcoin stabilizes above the symbolic threshold of $100,000, the short-term market trend remains favorable for a continuation of the uptrend and a price discovery phase above $111,000.
Meanwhile, mining activity is in full swing, with the Bitcoin network’s hashrate reaching new highs. In addition, miners’ spending behavior appears to be slowing down in 2024, following a sharp distribution at the end of 2023.
Short-term outlook
Let’s start by looking at the short-term dynamics of the BTC price. It remains above the short-term (STH, in red) and very short-term (7D, in yellow) base costs, signaling notable strength in price action following the June correction.
The bullish structure in place since May remains valid and raises high expectations for upward volatility if the $111,000 peak is broken.
In the spot markets, four significant accumulation zones have formed as the bullish recovery has progressed and are now worth watching closely:
- $107,000;
- $105,000;
- $98,000;
- $95,000.
These prices represent areas where significant volumes of BTC have been acquired recently, acting as potential support levels that will need to be broken with force in order to establish a new correction.
With such supports close to the current price, the market is likely to prove resilient in the event of a slowdown, as these areas could bring additional buying pressure if revisited.
If the BTC price does break through these supports, the medium/long-term trend will not be broken as long as the market remains above $95,000.
In addition, the slowdown in STH-SOPR mentioned in our latest analyses appears to have finally come to an end, signaling the end of short-term loss-taking and an improvement in short-term investor sentiment (STH).
The ongoing stabilization above 1 is another sign of market strength, which is promising as long as the higher support levels hold.
Miner profitability
Miner profitability is an essential parameter for ensuring the viable security of the Bitcoin network. The better miners are paid, the more incentive they have to deploy computing power.
With transaction fees representing less than 2% of their total remuneration, BTC miners currently have to rely on block rewards to ensure the smooth running of their business.
Transaction fees indicate reduced transaction demand, low blockchain usage, and low interest from market participants (which we discussed in our previous analysis).
Despite low fees, miners’ daily revenues are close to $50 million, which is higher than the annual average, which serves as a long-term benchmark.
It therefore appears that miners’ incomes are adequate, but not particularly high. In fact, mining remains profitable and the financial stress experienced by miners is currently low.
The profitability conditions described above are essential to explaining the savings/spending behavior of miners, which has changed significantly in recent months:
- December 2023 – February 2024: high spending, profit-taking while the market is strong;
- March 2025 – March 2025: moderate spending post-halving;
- April 2025 – July 2025: savings favored, inflows > outflows.
After a period of strong profit-taking at the end of 2023, miners reduced their spending following the halving in April 2024, still liquidating part of their assets to compensate for the halving of block rewards.
The year 2025 was marked by a reversal in behavior, now in favor of savings, indicating that the rise in the price of BTC allowed miners to reduce their spending and return to a major accumulation behavior.
Summary of this on-chain analysis of BTC
The bullish structure in place since May remains valid, and there are no signs of spending or increased selling pressure from short-term investors at this time.
Despite low fees, miners’ daily revenues are approaching $50 million: mining activity remains profitable and the financial stress on miners is currently negligible.
