While stocks are climbing, Bitcoin has been moving in the opposite direction since its all-time high in October. This divergence raises questions: Is Bitcoin becoming an asset in its own right, detached from its usual dynamics? Its volatility remains a hindrance, but its fundamentals are bringing it closer and closer to a modern store of value.
Bitcoin is charting its own course and letting stocks soar
Bitcoin remains a largely misunderstood, if not completely misunderstood, asset around the world. Different groups of people react differently to the risks associated with holding it. For some, its high volatility makes it too risky an asset to include in an investment portfolio.
Others, on the contrary, consider this volatility acceptable, provided that exposure remains moderate and controlled. A third group sees in its fundamental characteristics (scarcity, censorship resistance, decentralization) the qualities of a long-term safe haven, a tool for protection against inflation and government interference, and views its volatility as an opportunity to buy more.
But beyond individual beliefs and opinions, what does the market actually tell us?
Since October 2025, Bitcoin has shown a decoupling from the stock market, particularly from technology indices.
While the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 have each risen by more than 16% in 2025, Bitcoin has posted a notable decline of nearly 30% since its all-time high of $126,000 reached in October. Since the start of the year, BTC has fallen by about 5%, further widening its gap with the stock markets.
Bitcoin price (orange), compared to the S&P 500 (blue), the Nasdaq 100 (pink), and gold (green)
This decline occurred despite a favorable environment for risky assets, which has surprised and worried some investors. Several factors explain this reversal: a wave of profit-taking following the October peak, a slowdown in inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, and a series of liquidations in the derivatives markets.
However, from a macroeconomic perspective, Vincent believes that the Federal Reserve’s delayed pivot could reignite money creation, a factor that has historically been favorable to Bitcoin.
This contradiction suggests that Bitcoin may now evolve according to its own dynamics, marking a shift toward greater autonomy as a distinct macroeconomic asset.
Is Bitcoin creating its own market and breaking free from risky assets?
This opens the door to a paradox. Bitcoin is still perceived by many as a risky asset, and yet it has not tracked the stock markets for several months.
So, has it become a store of value, just like gold? Not exactly. Because since October, it is actually the stock market that has shown a strong correlation with gold.
In reality, Bitcoin seems to sit between these two worlds. It possesses all the characteristics of gold: scarcity, divisibility, decentralization, and the function of a store of value. But it goes even further: Bitcoin is more easily verifiable, transportable, and divisible than gold. Qualities that might have allowed the yellow metal to retain its status as a monetary standard.
Can Bitcoin then replace gold as the global monetary benchmark? It’s hard to say. It has the fundamental qualities, but only time will confirm whether or not it can fulfill this role.
The main obstacle remains its volatility, which still leads it to be labeled a speculative bubble, a Ponzi scheme, or an overly risky asset. Yet this volatility tends to decrease with each cycle.
One thing is certain: Bitcoin is different, and its role in economic, social, and geopolitical debates is only just beginning.
