Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) have been essentially bearish in recent weeks. The price is coming in on important technical levels, and the price reaction will be important. How to take this difficult market phase calmly, so as not to suffer from it
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis
Let’s start our market review with an analysis of the Bitcoin (BTC) price on the monthly view. The latter helps to understand the macro situation that is playing out for this asset.
Within the next 15 days, this should close and it is easy to identify the level to hold. A close below $35,000 would signal a much larger retracement phase for the price.
Indeed, the next macro price areas are between $20,000 – $9,000. These zones correspond to the level of the former ATH on the one hand, and the impetus of the bullish movement on the other.
Figure 1: Bitcoin (BTC) analysis in 1M
Now let’s focus on the weekly view to clarify this. What is very clear now is the formation of a range between $31,200 – $61,800. In this area, the price is moving erratically between the two bounds. Let’s take this range in its context, i.e. after a major bullish phase.
It is still too early to say whether we are in a re-accumulation phase or a distribution phase, as the two outcomes are different.
Figure 2: Bitcoin (BTC) analysis in 1W
This range becomes clearer on the daily view, and we can note two things:
- The price has lost its last low at $37,250, confirming its downtrend,
- For the price to go back up, it will have to break through $47,000.
Currently, the price remains well down implying that any rise this week will be a retracement of the downward movement.
Figure 3: 3D analysis of Bitcoin (BTC)
The 4h view will give us the same type of information with local levels that would signal the potential retracement phase.
A recovery from $31,600, would allow us to retrace to the $37,300 – $40,000 level.
Figure 4: Bitcoin (BTC) analysis in 4h
Ether (ETH) technical analysis
Our next analysis will focus on the price of Ether (ETH). As with Bitcoin, the price on the monthly view follows the same pattern.
The last low at $2250 shows us the last area that allows the price to maintain its micro bullish structure. If it closes below this level, a larger retracement scenario will take place. The first buy zone is around $1,110 while the last zone is at $225.
Figure 5: Ether (ETH) analysis in 1M
On the weekly view, the price is also forming a range that takes place between $2,000 and $4,000. A close below $2,000 will be a first bearish signal that will trigger the scenario of a bigger drop.
In the meantime, this technical point should allow us to see rebounds even in the short term. We will have to keep an eye on the close and on the information that the daily unit will give us.
Figure 6: Ether (ETH) analysis in 1W
Here again, this unit of time allows us to identify 2 important areas:
- The price has lost its last low at $2490, confirming its bearish continuation
- For the price to hit the upper bound of the range, it will have to close above $3,500.
Figure 7: Ether (ETH) analysis in 3D
In case of a bounce, the price will be on a retracement phase. On the 4h view, we can note the $2400 area which will allow to retrace to the $2700 – $2900 in a first step. As long as this area is not breached, the price may continue to fall towards new supports.
Figure 8: Ether (ETH) analysis in 4h
Conclusion
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) prices are currently on their lower bounds and last defense zone. In the event of a move lower, the deeper retracement scenario takes place, with minimum targets at $20,000 for Bitcoin and $1,100 for Ether.
The price could rebound within the week to the current area, but we will not be able to consider this as a structural rise. We need to break above the recent highs to change the current bearish structure. Any rebound will therefore have to be considered as a simple retracement, and quick profit taking is therefore preferred.
Limiting exposure while waiting for the return of the trend movements seems then mandatory for less experienced players.
