Will it climb? Not climb? That’s the question on everyone’s lips as the 2024 Bitcoin halving approaches in just a few days’ time. While the market is rather optimistic, Goldman Sachs is urging investors to be cautious. Why?
Goldman Sachs and halving: caution on Bitcoin
As the Goldman Sachs note points out, it’s been said over and over again that the Bitcoin (BTC) price tends to rise sharply after each halving. Historically, the price climbs a little before the event, and this is also the case in the year that follows. But according to the financial institution, you can’t make generalizations:
“Historically, the last 3 halvings have been accompanied by BTC price appreciation […] but the time it has taken to reach a peak varies significantly. “
In other words: if all the halvings have led to rises, we can’t say precisely when Bitcoin will peak. Or even if it will, again according to Goldman Sachs:
“We need to be cautious when extrapolating historical cycles as well as the impact of halving, given current macro conditions. “
Elements that differ from the last halving?
Bitcoin is indeed evolving in conditions that have changed significantly since 2020. Geopolitical events are having an impact on the world’s largest cryptocurrency – as we saw again this weekend. Moreover, Bitcoin spot ETFs now exist, which was not the case before.
It should also be remembered that this is the first time that Bitcoin has reached an all-time high in the months preceding a halving, rather than in the months following. Hence the caution expressed by Goldman Sachs, which advises its clients not to start with absolute certainties.
Today, the Bitcoin price is struggling to recover from its weekend plunge. Whereas it used to regularly exceed $70,000, it is currently in a range of around $61,000 to $66,000:
The Bitcoin (BTC) price is still hesitant at the start of the week
At this stage, BTC represents a capitalization of $1,246 billion. Bitcoin’s halving will take place in 2 days’ time. Until then, speculation will probably continue to run riot.
