A report aired on France Info claims that 3 million Bitcoins were lost during a solar storm in 2015. A surprising claim, backed by a scientific study. But what does this study actually say?
A solar storm could destroy Bitcoins, according to a France Info journalist
Last Saturday, a report aired on France Info surprised many cryptocurrency enthusiasts by claiming that nearly 3 million Bitcoins were lost in 2015 following major solar storms.
Nicolas Arpagian, a columnist for France Info and Les Échos, a professor at the École nationale supérieure de la police (ENSP) and Sciences Po Saint-Germain, and the author of books on cybersecurity, states:
The eruption on March 17, 2015, caused major disruptions to the power grid, resulting in the loss of some 3 million Bitcoins, or approximately $883 million.
However, upon consulting the source cited by Nicolas Arpagian in his article published on the France Info website on the same subject, we find that the reality is significantly different from his claim.
In fact, the Swiss Finance Institute report, written in English, makes no mention of a loss of Bitcoins, but rather of a reduction in the frequency of transactions on the blockchain, affecting approximately 3 million BTC.
Excerpt from the Swiss Finance Institute study
Using daily data from September 2014 to January 2023, our multi-horizon analysis identifies statistically significant short-, medium-, and long-term effects, revealing that severe solar storms immediately destabilize networks, delay transaction confirmations, and reduce BTC activity. Furthermore, we quantify the economic impact of these disruptions. In 2015 alone, geomagnetic storms were associated with a cumulative reduction of nearly 3 million BTC in trading volume, corresponding to an estimated value of approximately $883 million.
This is therefore likely a misinterpretation or misunderstanding on the part of the France Info journalist.
Is it even possible for a solar storm to destroy Bitcoins?
In reality, it is impossible for a solar storm to “destroy” Bitcoins. BTCs are not physical objects stored on machines, but entries recorded in a distributed ledger, copied and synchronized across thousands of nodes worldwide—this is what is known as “the blockchain.”
For a solar storm to truly wipe out BTC, it would have to either destroy 100% of the Bitcoin network’s nodes simultaneously or wipe out all traces of human civilization.
What solar storms can cause, however, are localized power outages, particularly in areas where mining farms are located. However, these disruptions caused by solar winds are very rare, and the Swiss Finance Institute’s study should also be taken with a grain of salt; other factors occurring simultaneously could explain this.
Furthermore, no significant disruption to Bitcoin’s hashrate—its overall computing power—was observed during this period. Only a decline of about 3% was recorded, dropping from 346 to 335 PH/s between March 12 and 21, a minor dip compared to the much steeper drops observed earlier.
Bitcoin hashrate on March 17, 2015
This could then lead to a temporary drop in the hashrate, i.e., the computing power available to secure the network and process transactions. During this period, block confirmation may slow down until the Bitcoin protocol automatically adjusts its difficulty (approximately every two weeks), as specified by its algorithm.
The network then becomes slower, but no Bitcoin can be lost as long as at least one honest node manages to survive the solar winds.
