On Friday, October 10, 2025, the cryptocurrency market suffered a real shockwave, marked by a massive liquidation of long positions exceeding $19 billion. This violent shock was triggered by the sudden announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports by the US president, causing widespread panic across all risk markets. In this context, can Bitcoin extend its bullish cycle beyond October 2025?
Precise time markers that could take the cycle to the end of November
The previous cycle, linked to the May 2020 halving, lasted 546 days after the event before reaching its peak, and 1061 days in absolute terms, i.e., from the pre-halving low point to the end of the bull market.
Applying this timeline to the current cycle, these benchmarks correspond respectively to Saturday, October 18, 2025 for the 546 days post-halving and Friday, October 17, 2025 for the 1,061 days in total duration.
These projections therefore place the potential market peak between mid-October and late November 2025 (see the table of correspondences below), depending on whether the cycle follows the same pace as that of 2020 or aligns with the average of the three previous cycles (2012, 2016, and 2020). However, several factors suggest that this time around, the momentum could stretch out longer.
The likelihood of a cycle extension is linked to political and geopolitical fundamentals
Two fundamental conditions could extend this cycle beyond historical patterns:
- The end of the US government shutdown, which is currently weighing on macroeconomic confidence and global liquidity. A fiscal restart by the federal government could revive capital flows to risky assets, including Bitcoin, and also allow the SEC to approve pending spot crypto ETF applications.
- A new trade agreement between the US and China, which could ease economic tensions and reactivate global growth. Such geopolitical détente would create a more favorable environment for financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.
If these two conditions were met by the end of October, Bitcoin’s bull cycle could exceed the duration of the previous cycle and extend until the end of November 2025 or even early December. This scenario would imply a slightly longer cycle, marked by a delayed phase of euphoria, a scenario that remains credible as long as the price of Bitcoin maintains its major support level of $106,000/$109,000.
The Fed is expected to lower the federal funds rate at the end of October
Jerome Powell spoke yesterday and confirmed that the Fed’s next monetary policy decision at the end of October would see another rate cut. He also suggested that the end of the Fed’s balance sheet reduction was near, which would create liquidity conditions favorable to cryptocurrencies.
While the history of Bitcoin cycles offers valuable insights, it cannot be considered a fixed model. The current cycle, rooted in an unprecedented economic and geopolitical environment, could well exceed the average duration observed to date. If the US government shutdown ends and a lasting trade agreement is reached between Washington and Beijing, the probability of a market peak being postponed until November 2025 is therefore credible, but the major support level of $106,000/$109,000 MUST BE MAINTAINED.
