According to the founder of Cryptoquant, unless Strategy sells its BTC, we won’t see a 70% drop in Bitcoin during this cycle. What should we make of this hypothesis?
The founder of Cryptoquant gives his opinion on the decline of Bitcoin (BTC)
On Monday, we attempted to make projections on the possible low that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) could reach during this bear market. Making a few assumptions, we hypothesized scenarios with lows between $28,300 and $34,300 based on past data, although it is extremely difficult to establish a reliable model.
For his part, Ki Young Ju, the founder of Cryptoquant, estimated that BTC would not fall by 70%, as we have seen in previous cycles, provided that Strategy maintains its position:
Early holders are showing significant unrealized gains thanks to ETFs and MSTR [Strategy, ed.] purchases. They have been taking profits since the beginning of last year, but strong inflows have kept Bitcoin around $100,000. Today, those inflows have dried up. MSTR has been one of the main drivers of this rally. Unless Saylor significantly liquidates his holdings, we will not see a -70% crash as in previous cycles. Selling pressure continues, so the bottom is not yet clearly identified, but this bear market is likely to result in a long period of sideways consolidation over a wide range.
At the same time, the analyst relies on Realized Cap, an indicator that calculates BTC’s capitalization based on the value of each bitcoin at the time of its last movement. While an increase in Realized Cap suggests an influx of capital, Ki Young Ju observes that this indicator has flattened, indicating a lack of new entrants. For him, “when market capitalization falls in such an environment, we cannot talk about a bull market.”
Returning to the case of Strategy, the extent of the potential low point to come remains to be defined, even in the absence of a “70% crash.” And for good reason: the price of BTC has already collapsed by 38%, even though Strategy has effectively maintained its positions and there has not yet been any major internal crisis in the crypto ecosystem during this cycle.
Ki Young Ju has been wrong in the past, notably when he estimated in March 2025 that we were already in a bear market. While it is precisely the nature of analysts to be wrong, only the future will tell us what the actual low point of BTC will be during this bear market.
