Since its last peak above $124,000, Bitcoin has undergone a significant correction of more than 10%. Could this be the much-feared announcement of a return below the symbolic threshold of $100,000?
Bitcoin “highly exposed to sudden movements”
The price of BTC is currently evolving in a complicated macroeconomic environment, since President Donald Trump triggered the tariff war.
However, other data should not be overlooked.
This observation was made by Vetle Lund, head of research at K33 Research, in a recent analysis in which he warns of a “comfortable numbness” in the Bitcoin market following its latest historic high. The reason for this is a historically unfavorable September for BTC, but that’s not all.
According to Vetle Lund, the real consequences of Donald Trump’s customs duties will very soon become apparent in the US producer price index (PPI) and consumer price index (CPI), with a very likely downward effect.
He adds another potentially destabilizing factor to the equation, with open interest in the Bitcoin futures market reaching annual highs. Indeed, the excessive use of significant leverage could lead to sudden liquidations in the event of a bearish reversal.
This situation leaves Bitcoin “highly exposed to sudden movements, both upward and downward.” The scenario associated with the release of new unfavorable macroeconomic data implies a possible decline in BTC to price levels between $101,000 and $94,000.
Will the price of BTC go “from euphoria to exhaustion”?
On the Glassnode analysis side, the picture seems a little more positive, with the profitability of short-term BTC holders falling from over 90% to just 42% during the recent sell-off, before rebounding to around 60%. However, fragility remains very present in the Bitcoin market.
Bitcoin is consolidating in the $104,000 to $116,000 price range after strong buying interest from investors. Futures and ETF flows show declining demand. A break above $116,000 could reignite the uptrend, while a break below could trigger a move towards $93,000 to $95,000.
According to Glassnode analysts, Bitcoin’s current fragility could be partly explained by the significant slowdown in inflows recorded in the spot ETF market, whose positive flows have largely fueled previous bullish rallies. Could the recent resumption of its dominance over Ethereum be seen as a positive sign?
In any case, Vetle Lund is quick to point out that a completely different scenario is playing out in the long term, as Bitcoin “is not affected by global turmoil or restrictive international trade conditions.” In the short term, caution remains the order of the day.
