It has now been 120 days since Bitcoin’s price hit its cyclical high of $126,000, and since then, it has been repeating—with astonishing precision—the price and time pattern of the 2022 bear market, the previous bear market. But beware: this comparison won’t hold up for long. Read Vincent Ganne’s analysis.
An Astonishing Replay of the 2022 Bear Market
It has now been 120 days since Bitcoin’s price hit its cyclical high of $126,000, and since then it has been repeating—with astonishing precision—the price and timing pattern of the 2022 bear market, the previous “bear market.” But be warned: this comparison won’t hold for long.
BTC’s drawdown now stands at 40% since its all-time high on Monday, October 6. We know that from one bear market to the next, this drawdown tends to decrease, but it has always been greater than 70%. First of all, I believe that the drawdown in our current bear market will be more contained due to the massive institutional presence compared to the past.
Nevertheless, it is clear that BTC is repeating the technical and cyclical pattern of 2022, but BTC has never had the exact same chart as in the past, so the comparison won’t hold up for much longer. The market top occurred 80 weeks after the halving (see all the data on the chart below), and the bottom is expected around 130 weeks after the halving, which would be next September. However, many market indicators suggest that the bottom could be reached before that date, notably relative strength and arbitrage with precious metals.
The BTC/GOLD ratio is in a major low zone
The latter have been in a downtrend since the end of last week, marking the bursting of a massive speculative bubble that had been building since the fourth quarter of 2025. Technical analysis of the BTC/GOLD ratio suggests that a major low may be on the horizon.
It is now entering its 59th week of the bear market—a duration that coincided with the end of the 2022 bear market. Adding to this is an interesting ratio: the BTC/GOLD ratio has retraced 80% of its previous bull market cycle, which was the same proportion as the final low of 2022.
So be aware: even though BTC’s low against the U.S. dollar could still go lower, it is becoming likely that Bitcoin will not fully replicate the trajectory of the 2022 bear market.
This distinction is crucial to understand because the macroeconomic and structural context of 2026 bears no resemblance to that of 2022. At that time, the market was facing a sharp monetary tightening, the collapse of several major players in the crypto sector, and widespread risk aversion.
Today, despite a sharp correction, the market operates in a much more mature environment, with solid infrastructure, deep institutional liquidity, and regulated financial products that cushion periods of panic.
Even though Bitcoin continues to draw parallels with the past in terms of cycles and timing, it is unlikely to exactly replicate the final intensity of the 2022 bear market. The market appears to be heading toward an earlier, more contained, and structurally different end to the bear market. In my view, the maximum drawdown is likely to be between $60,000 and $70,000—no more.
