It has now been 120 days since the price of Bitcoin peaked at $126,000, and since then it has been repeating the price and time pattern of the 2022 bear market, the previous bear market, with astonishing accuracy. But beware, this comparison will not hold up for long. Read Vincent Ganne’s analysis.
A striking repeat of the 2022 bear market
It has now been 120 days since the price of Bitcoin peaked at $126,000, and since then it has been repeating the price and time pattern of the 2022 bear market, the previous bear market, with astonishing accuracy. But beware, this comparison will not hold up for long. The BTC drawdown is now 40% since its historic high on Monday, October 6. We know that from bear market to bear market, this drawdown is decreasing, but it has always been above 70%. First of all, I think that the drawdown of our current bear market will be more contained due to the massive institutional presence compared to the past.
Nevertheless, it is clear that BTC is repeating the technical and cyclical pattern of 2022, but BTC has never had the same chart as in the past, so the comparison will not hold up for very long. The market peak occurred 80 weeks after the halving (see all the data in the chart below), and the low point is expected around 130 weeks after the halving, i.e., next September. However, many market indicators suggest that the bottom could be reached before that date, particularly relative approach and arbitrage with precious metals.
The BTC/GOLD ratio is at a major low point
The latter entered a downward phase at the end of last week, bursting the speculative bubble that had been massive since the last quarter of 2025. Technical analysis of the BTC/GOLD ratio suggests that a major low point is in sight.
The latter is entering its 59th week of bear market, which was the timing of the end of the bear market in 2022. Added to this is an interesting proportion: the BTC/GOLD ratio has retraced 80% of its previous bull cycle, which was the proportion of the final low point in 2022.
So be careful, even if the low point of BTC could be even lower against the US dollar, it is likely that bitcoin will not repeat the trajectory of the 2022 bear market all the way to the end.
This nuance is essential to understand because the macroeconomic and structural context of 2026 is completely different from that of 2022. At the time, the market was facing a sharp monetary tightening, the implosion of several major players in the crypto sector, and widespread risk aversion.
Today, despite a sharp correction, the market is operating in a much more mature environment, with solid infrastructure, deep institutional liquidity, and regulated financial products that cushion periods of panic.
Even if Bitcoin continues to draw inspiration from the past in terms of cycles and timing, it is unlikely to faithfully replicate the final intensity of the 2022 bear market. The market appears to be moving toward an earlier, more contained, and structurally different end to the bear market. In my view, the maximum drawdown is likely to be between $60,000 and $70,000, but no more.
