Over the past several years, the correlation between Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) stock and the price of Bitcoin has strengthened significantly. This relationship is significant: Strategy has become a stock market proxy for Bitcoin due to its strategy of massively accumulating BTC on its balance sheet. Read Vincent Ganne’s technical analysis.
Strategy Stock, a Bitcoin Forerunner
Historically, Strategy stock has often demonstrated an ability to anticipate Bitcoin price movements, particularly during market reversals and breakouts.
During periods of market stress, Strategy tends to correct more sharply, but it also rebounds more quickly when sentiment improves. This behavior makes it an interesting leading indicator for analyzing potential Bitcoin recovery phases, particularly in oversold technical conditions such as those currently observed.
Keep an eye on January 15 for Strategy
However, January brings a key event for Strategy that calls for caution: January 15, in connection with the MSCI index rebalancing. Inclusion in, retention in, or—conversely—partial exclusion from a major index can generate significant short-term volatility, regardless of fundamentals or technical structure.
These adjustments often trigger mechanical capital flows, which can cause sudden price movements that are sometimes at odds with the underlying trend.
Thus, even if the technical picture suggests a rebound, investors must remain vigilant around this deadline, as it could temporarily delay or amplify movements in Strategy’s stock price—unless all of this is already priced in. On the other hand, if Strategy remains in the MSCI indices, there will be a very strong rebound in the stock price.
A favorable environment for a technical rebound in BTC and Strategy
From a technical perspective, several converging signals point toward a technical rebound in January, for both Strategy and Bitcoin. Strategy’s daily and weekly charts show the price approaching major support levels established during previous accumulation phases.
Momentum oscillators (see the DSS BRESSERT technical indicator below) indicate advanced oversold conditions, accompanied by bullish divergences—often precursors to a short- to medium-term reversal.
As for Bitcoin, the psychological threshold of $100,000 acts as a technical pivot point and could be tested by the end of January.
In conclusion, while caution remains warranted in the short term due to institutional deadlines in mid-January, current technical conditions suggest that Strategy and Bitcoin could enter a technical rebound phase during the month of January.
For investors, it is less a matter of anticipating an immediate new bull market than of identifying an opportunity to catch their breath after a sharp correction in the fourth quarter of 2025.
As is often the case, Strategy’s reaction could set the pace for Bitcoin’s next move, which continues to benefit from strong bullish support driven by the momentum of global M2 liquidity.
