After several weeks of consolidation near its lows, Bitcoin is initiating a solid technical rebound. Beyond technical indicators, the upcoming review of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate represents a catalyst that is still underestimated, one that could alter institutional investor behavior and short-term market asymmetry.
Since its November lows, around $83,000, Bitcoin’s price appears to be regaining upward momentum this week. The BTC/USD pair has rebounded firmly by about 7% over two trading sessions (Tuesday and Wednesday), with a notable increase in volume, and has broken above a key short-term pivot point around $94,000 to hit a two-month high.
Bitcoin breaks out of an ascending triangle on high volume
From a technical analysis perspective, breaking above this level—which has served as active resistance since early December—confirms a breakout from an ascending triangle. The theoretical target for this pattern is around $107,000, representing potential upside of about 10% from the $97,000 area. Such a move would bring Bitcoin back into contact with long-term benchmarks, notably the 200-day moving average, which is closely monitored by many portfolio managers using automated strategies. The signal is all the more interesting as it comes after a sharp correction from October’s high above $126,000—a level that continues to serve as a benchmark for profit-taking.
Daily BTC/USD price chart
A regulatory catalyst that could alter institutional risk
This surge in Bitcoin also comes amid a political timeline that could act as a catalyst. The U.S. Senate Banking Committee has postponed the executive session (closed-door meeting) that was scheduled for Thursday, January 15, to review the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (“CLARITY Act”), which was already passed by the House of Representatives on July 17, 2025, and sent to the Senate in September.
The central objective of the bill is to propose a practical framework for distinguishing between assets subject to securities regulations and assets classified as “digital commodities,” in line with the position of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which considers Bitcoin to be a commodity, just like gold or oil. The majority of the committee emphasizes its desire to clarify the division of roles between the CFTC and the Securities and Exchange Commission, and to replace an approach perceived as excessively contentious with a clearer statutory framework.
For the market, the stakes go beyond the mere adoption of the bill. As long as the rules of the game remain unclear, major institutional players such as banks, insurers, custodians, and funds have an incentive to proceed gradually and cautiously. Conversely, as the likelihood of a stable framework increases, the option to take a position earlier becomes more attractive, particularly through vehicles already subject to regulatory constraints, such as spot Bitcoin ETFs.
A Bitcoin Rally to Be Handled with Caution
Despite an asymmetry that has once again become more favorable to short-term buyers, caution remains warranted. On the one hand, the bill’s passage through committee is not the end of the process: the legislation must still clear the Senate and then undergo political negotiations, with a real risk of it being blocked or the final version being watered down. On the other hand, from a cyclical perspective, Bitcoin entered the historically more unfavorable phase of its four-year cycle last fall—a phase that lasts, on average, about one year. In this context, the current rebound may be nothing more than an intermediate rally within a broader corrective phase.
