Is BTC poised to rebound above $95,000, or should we fear a dead cat bounce in the coming weeks? BTC’s on-chain data allows us to navigate these uncertainties.
Can BTC rebound?
The BTC price is once again attempting to break through the $95,000 resistance level, an encouraging price dynamic for the start of 2026.
While the on-chain structure seems conducive to a short-term rebound for BTC, demand flows remain particularly limited.
Will BTC be able to break through $95,000 without significant buying pressure? Let’s take a look!
Market behavior
The SOPR ratio is an excellent indicator for tracking trends and behavior in the BTC market. It measures the degree of profit or loss realized during the daily spending of Bitcoin holders.
Declining since the major profit-taking recorded in early September 2025, the SOPR ratio signaled a slowdown in spending profitability and a gradual weakening of the uptrend.
At the end of 2025, the metric approached statistical thresholds indicating a phase of significant loss-taking, during which capitulation may occur before selling pressure begins to exhaust itself.
The SOPR ratio is now stagnating just below its neutral threshold, suggesting that a trend reversal remains possible if the indicator manages to climb sustainably above 1 in the coming weeks.
The short-term variant of the SOPR ratio (STH-SOPR) tracks the spending dynamics of the most recent investors, providing a more accurate picture of short-term behavior.
A notable divergence can be observed between the current stagnation in the price of BTC and the STH-SOPR ratio, which is gradually approaching 1 after recording a major loss-taking spike at the end of November 2025.
This divergence indicates that short-term investors are incurring fewer and fewer losses as BTC stabilizes, a context that is generally favorable for a trend reversal in the coming weeks.
However, the indicator will need to cross the 1 threshold on a sustained basis in order to confirm the return of short-term profit-taking.
Once this momentum is confirmed, the likelihood of BTC prices starting a new bullish run will become significantly higher.
Supply/demand flows
Beyond the underlying dynamics, it is essential to analyze buying and selling flows in the various BTC markets in order to assess whether the conditions are right for a bullish recovery.
On the spot Bitcoin ETF side, buying pressure remains very limited despite the start of the year, with only a few sporadic buying spikes, insufficient to establish a lasting trend.
Conversely, selling pressure remains relatively sustained, indicating that the bias of investors exposed via ETFs has not yet shifted towards marked optimism.
The situation appears slightly more encouraging for major centralized spot exchanges such as Binance and Coinbase.
These two platforms have recorded net purchase volumes of several hundred BTC per day since the beginning of 2026.
In addition to these purchase volumes, there has been a gradual slowdown in net selling pressure, allowing the price to breathe more easily after the sustained downtrend that began in October 2025.
Finally, the centralized futures markets of Bybit and Binance continue to show very limited demand. Paradoxically, this is a constructive factor, as previous attempts at recovery have often been undermined by excessive leverage on the part of bullish speculators.
Here again, a gradual easing of selling pressure can be observed, suggesting that bearish conditions continue to slowly erode.
Summary of this on-chain analysis of Bitcoin (BTC)
The SOPR ratio and its short-term variant suggest that a trend reversal is possible if spending profitability returns to positive territory in the coming weeks.
On the spot Bitcoin ETF side, buying pressure remains very limited despite the start of the year, with only a few sporadic buying spikes, insufficient to establish a sustainable trend.
Among the major centralized spot exchanges, Binance and Coinbase have recorded net purchase volumes of several hundred BTC per day since the beginning of 2026.
Finally, the centralized futures markets of Bybit and Binance are showing a gradual easing of selling pressure, suggesting that bearish conditions continue to slowly erode.
