On October 6, 2025, Bitcoin reached a new high of around $126,000. Since then, analysts have been divided on the question: has the bull cycle that began after the halving in April 2024 already come to an end? Here is Vincent Ganne’s technical analysis of BTC.
A cycle that is within the average time frame, nothing more
An analysis of the pace of previous cycles provides some interesting insights. On average, the period between a halving and the end of the cycle varies between 526 and 546 days. However, the peak in 2025 occurred 534 days after the peak in 2024, which corresponds almost exactly to this average. If we look at the overall duration of the cycle, approximately 1,438 days since the previous peak, it is also in line with the cycles of 2016 and 2020, which were of similar duration.
Thus, from a temporal and statistical point of view, the scenario of a Bitcoin price peak already reached is consistent, a cycle within the temporal average with a very average overall performance. In absolute terms, this amounts to 1,055 days if the cycle ended on Monday, October 6, which is slightly less than the two previous cycles.
Market structure remains solid as long as major support levels hold
Technically, however, the underlying uptrend is not yet in question. The price of Bitcoin is still trading above its 50-week moving average, a historically decisive threshold for differentiating bull markets from bear markets.
In previous market phases, a break below this moving average confirmed the bear market. Today, this support level is around the current price level, so this week’s technical close will be crucial.
A major upward trend line, drawn from the lows of 2024, is also converging towards this same price zone. As long as this structure remains intact, the current phase can be interpreted as a pause in the uptrend rather than a lasting reversal. On the other hand, a clear break of these major supports would be the ultimate confirmation that BTC has indeed been in a bear market since Monday, October 6, when it traded at $126,000.
Conclusion: a peak is possible, but not yet confirmed
In summary, the cycle timeline suggests that the peak of this bull run may already have been reached. However, there are no major technical signals yet to confirm a definitive reversal.
As long as Bitcoin remains in the $98,000 to $100,000 range, the long-term trend remains positive. Only in the event of a clear weekly technical break below the 50-week moving average would the market truly enter a prolonged downturn.
