Recent movements have had a negative impact on the Ether chart, which is now fluctuating between a return below $2,800 and a recovery to $4,000. If it plans to return to its highs, Ethereum must maintain weekly closes above $3,500.
End of cycle or just a pause?
It is Wednesday, November 12, 2025, and the price of Ether is hovering around $3,500.
Our last technical analysis of ETH was on October 15, 2025, when the price was around $4,100.
Since then, Ether has fallen back below $4,000, affected by a generally more uncertain market, in a crypto environment divided between holders anticipating the end of the cycle and more ambitious new entrants aiming for unprecedented highs in 2025 or 2026.
This ambivalent climate, reinforced by traditional markets that are losing their bearings, continues to weigh on price developments.
The topic of Ether’s outperformance relative to Bitcoin remains relevant, but there has been little change since this summer, when ETH began a significant rebound that it has now been digesting for twelve weeks.
Back close to the 50-week moving average and the polarity threshold of the movement, the ETH/BTC pair needs to show a rapid resurgence of strength.
Last week’s low is a relevant benchmark that could serve as a invalidation point. A slight dip below this level can be tolerated, given the proximity of the SMA50, but no closing price should settle below it if we want to avoid the development of statistics favoring a new phase of sustained underperformance.
Unsurprisingly, Ether firmly holds its second place in the cryptocurrency rankings, with a market capitalization of $420 billion. However, it is undergoing a period of consolidation, both against BTC and the dollar.
Ethereum is in a bearish trend.
Ether has been in a weekly downtrend since the confirmed break below $4,200.
Now back below $4,000, the possibility of a visit to the $2,800 zone, the confluence of the 50% retracement of the bear market and the major pivot point of the last 18 months, is within the realm of probability.
This zone must be preserved to avoid a deeper price decline (bear market).
For the moment, market signals do not seem to indicate that such a scenario could occur in the immediate future, as the 50-week moving average has managed to boost the price.
To maintain the idea of a short-term rebound, ETH must maintain weekly closes above $3,500.
This threshold is a polarity level that will act as a pivot between the assumptions of a return to $4,800 and the more bearish assumptions towards $2,000.
However, market momentum remains impacted by recent movements, and the bearish trend that has developed may take some time to reverse.
In addition, the $3,815 to $4,210 zone is likely to show significant resistance, probably causing friction before allowing for a resolution.
To prepare for such a move, Ethereum must rebuild a daily structure and realign bullish highs and lows.
A first step, with the formation of a high on Monday, has just been taken.
Now, the asset must mark a low and break through $3,658 to validate an attempt at bullish reconstruction on a daily basis.
Let’s not forget, however, that at this stage, the trend remains bearish. Failure to build a new high above the previous one means that, at best, we could see a period of sideways consolidation and, at worst, a continued correction. In the event of a continued decline, the $2,800 zone is ideal for allowing the price to take another break.
In summary, recent movements have deteriorated the chart pattern for Ether, which is now caught between a possible decline below $2,800 and an attempt to regain the $4,000 threshold. To hope to return to its highs, Ethereum must maintain weekly closes above $3,500.
So, do you think ETH can once again outperform the crypto market? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.
Have a great day, and we’ll see you next week for a new technical analysis of Ethereum.
