Bitcoin’s price is under geopolitical pressure at the start of the week, but on Bitcoin’s decline and liquidations – Only gold holds steady amid the prospect of a new trade war
Donald Trump hasn’t said his last word on Greenland, and he’s making that clear by threatening Europe with a new trade war. Result: The week begins with a drop in Bitcoin accompanied by $875 million in liquidations on the cryptocurrency market, while gold hits a new high.
Cryptocurrencies: $875 million in liquidations over the last 24 hours
The start of the week appears to be turbulent in the cryptocurrency market, following Donald Trump’s announcement over the weekend of a policy to forcibly acquire Greenland, using 10% tariffs imposed on eight European countries—including France—which could rise to 25% in June if he does not get his way.
As a result, Bitcoin plunged by more than 3% to settle below $93,000, while the top 10 cryptocurrencies saw declines of around 6% for Ripple’s XRP and more than 8% for Dogecoin (DOGE). Ethereum is holding up relatively well, with a 4.6% drop that keeps it above $3,000.
At the same time, liquidations have been piling up over the past 24 hours, reaching a total of nearly $875 million, according to data from the Coinglass website, of which more than $787 million involves long positions and $234 million for BTC alone ($155 million for Ethereum and $61 million for Solana’s SOL).
The crypto market has recorded $875 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours
In fact, these significant liquidations involve 249,087 traders, with a single BTC-USDT position alone holding a record $25.8 million on the Hyperliquid platform, which also tops the crypto exchange rankings with a total of $261.76 million liquidated during this period.
Gold hits a new all-time high
Proponents of the theory that Bitcoin is digital gold will likely be disappointed once again, especially considering that Cryptoquant analysts view its fragile rebound since the start of the year as a temporary movement rather than part of a genuine, sustainable recovery, as “demand remains too weak” in the BTC market.
Meanwhile, gold (XAU) has once again hit an all-time high, now standing at $4,690 as the week begins. This reinforces its status as a global store of value amid persistent geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties, while silver has just made a notable entry into second place among the world’s most valuable assets.
Gold price hits a new all-time high
Noteworthy fact: with this latest blow to global markets, President Donald Trump has caused Bitcoin to drop by a total of 15% since his inauguration, which took place almost exactly one year ago (January 20, 2025). At the same time, the price of gold has skyrocketed by over 70% while setting record after record.
Can we really hope for an imminent return of BTC to this bull run?
From a technical perspective, the annual recovery phase remains intact as long as the $90,000 support level holds. Check out Vincent Ganne’s analysis.
Bitcoin Under Geopolitical Pressure
Bitcoin’s price has been struggling to recover since the start of the year, with a rally that peaked at $98,000 before a pullback set in due to ongoing massive geopolitical tensions. Despite this, BTC has been in a bullish recovery since late November, but this recovery is slow, choppy, and underperforming compared to the behavior of gold and silver in the precious metals market.
In terms of timing, this first quarter of 2026 is very similar to the “dead cat bounce” seen during the bear market of the previous cycle in 2022. If this comparison holds up, then it is likely that BTC’s recovery is not yet over. For this to happen, it is imperative to hold the $90,000 support level.
This week, starting Monday, January 19, is packed with fundamental events; BTC should make its technical decision soon. (Geopolitical developments around Greenland, the World Economic Forum in Davos where Trump is scheduled to speak, U.S. PCE inflation, and the Clarity Act).
Here are my technical observations supporting the view of further recovery by the end of February, provided the $90,000 support level holds:
- If the dead cat bounce (or bear market rally) pattern from the previous cyclical bear market repeats itself, then Bitcoin should be able to reach its 200-day moving average in February (i.e., $105,000);
- Global liquidity, as a “leading indicator,” remains on a favorable trajectory through March;
- The momentum (annual rate of change) of this global liquidity has just hit a new high; this has consistently been a forward-looking bullish factor for BTC since the low at the end of 2022.
A “bear market rally” that is not yet over
From a strictly technical perspective, the current market structure remains consistent with a continuation of the recovery trend, despite high volatility.
Bitcoin is trading within a short- to medium-term upward channel, with a series of higher lows and higher highs since mid-December. As long as the $90,000 support level holds (the 50-day moving average), BTC retains a good chance of continuing its winter rally.
Historically, during dead cat bounce phases, the market has often attempted a return to the 200-day moving average before deciding either on a sustained bullish recovery or a failure followed by a new corrective phase to conclude the cyclical bear market.
Furthermore, the correlation with global liquidity remains a key macroeconomic indicator. The historical time lag observed between the troughs in global money supply growth and Bitcoin’s lows suggests that the crypto market could still benefit from tailwinds in the coming weeks. As long as this liquidity continues to grow and the major support level of $90,000 holds, the scenario of a continued dead cat bounce toward the $100,000–$105,000 range remains plausible through the end of February.
In summary, the environment remains fragile but constructive from a technical perspective, and the market still appears to be in an unfinished technical recovery phase rather than an immediate bearish reversal.
