The Bitcoin price held the major support zone of $102,000–$106,000 in the second half of October, but this rebound off support is not enough to confirm that the $126,000 high reached on Monday, October 6, was not the cycle high. Holding support is good, breaking through resistance is better. Here is Vincent Ganne’s technical analysis of BTC
The Bitcoin price has held its major support zone
Potentially, the Bitcoin cycle ended on October 6, with a local peak at $126,000. It is still too early to say for certain, but several technical signals suggest caution.
For now, the underlying trend remains bullish as long as the monthly support at $102,000–$106,000 holds. Below that, we would enter a different dynamic, with a risk of a structural shift and a definitive entry into a cyclical bear market. But we’re not there yet.
But it remains capped by extreme technical resistance
In the long term, there is one key element to watch: the major sloping resistance line connecting all the peaks over the past 10 years. This historical trendline passes precisely through the $126,000 zone. The rejection observed in early October is therefore significant; it corresponds to a major confluence point between technical and cyclical factors.
Each previous peak (2013, 2017, 2021) formed near this same resistance level. This is what makes the current setup particularly interesting: either the market manages to break through this line to confirm an unprecedented bullish extension of the cycle, or we enter a long-term distribution phase.
The BTC/GOLD ratio and global M2 liquidity provide support
There is a supportive factor in terms of cross-asset arbitrage. The BTC/GOLD ratio has returned to test a long-term support level, a key threshold that has historically marked the end of consolidation phases prior to expansionary phases.
As long as this ratio does not break down, the relative momentum of Bitcoin’s price against gold remains favorable. In other words, even if BTC consolidates, it still retains a stronger macro dynamic than that of safe-haven assets.
Another key factor: global liquidity (M2), which remains in an expansionary phase through the end of the year as a “leading indicator” with a 12-week time horizon.
This parameter is often underestimated, but it plays a decisive role in the cycles of risky assets. As long as net money creation remains positive, Bitcoin corrections tend to be absorbed quickly. The market remains buoyed by excess liquidity, and structural demand continues to grow, particularly through institutional flows.
In summary, we are likely at a pivotal point in the cycle. Technically, the major resistance at $126,000 may mark a temporary, or even cyclical, peak, but as long as the $100,000–$102,000 level holds at the monthly close, the primary trend remains bullish. A clear break below this support, however, would confirm the onset of a cyclical bear market.
