Bitcoin (BTC) is back on the rise, Ether (ETH) looks set to change trend, and Avalanche (AVAX) is ready for another expansion phase. Today, we take stock!
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Let’s start with Bitcoin (BTC), which has given us a nice gift for the holidays. Indeed, the weekly close on Sunday was above the $50,100 level. This level was a first step to restart the uptrend. It was part of the first roadblock in the long climb ahead (a resistance).
The theory of a higher than previous lows on the macro structure is likely to come true now, but we still need to regain some important local levels.
Bitcoin (BTC) analysis in 1W
Let’s focus on the daily view to refine our analysis again.
The area identified in the past weeks is still valid and will play a crucial role.
As a reminder:
- The buy zone is still between $46,000 – $48,300
- The first short zone is at $53,900, regaining it would take us to the next
- The last important zone is at $58,000, if this one is regained I expect a new ATH
Nevertheless, this time unit only gives us a medium term indication of the situation. I therefore find it interesting to zoom in further to refine our strategy
Bitcoin (BTC) analysis in 1D
The 4h view gives us important information for positioning. We can see that the range phase we identified is playing its role perfectly. Indeed, the bottom of the range had allowed the price to make a double bottom scenario.
It also reached (for Christmas) the identified target. The top of the range, has rejected the price as we had talked about. For now I expect a time delay between the middle and the top of the range (between $48,700 and $51,900).
The strong recovery signal will be on the breakout from the top of this range. While waiting for a response, we apply the range strategy, i.e. we buy the bottom to sell the top (unless we want to build a longer term position).
Bitcoin (BTC) analysis in 4 hours
Ether (ETH) technical analysis
Let’s move on to the Ether (ETH).
The area repeatedly identified at $3,900 remains valid, and Sunday’s weekly close was again above it. There is currently no additional information to add on this time unit. As they say, failing that it remains bullish.
Ether (ETH) analysis in 1W
We will have to zoom in on the 3 day consolidation to refine our analysis. We had identified the $3,900 – $4,100 area as a pivot. Losing it would take us to the next buy zone at $3,300 – $3,100.
What I observe as it stands is that the price has just made its bearish retest on the pivot zone. Indeed, we can clearly see a bullish retracement on the last low lost at $4,050. If we follow this logic, the next move should be a loss of the new low at $3,850 and thus a loss of the pivot zone.
I had mentioned the possibility of a test of the next buy zone, and this is the scenario that seems to be gradually emerging. It could be that the price fails to break through $3,850 which would be a very strong signal to buy.
In any case, Ethereum remains in a neutral zone and is not yet able to show its trend. It will be necessary to remain patient in order not to take a bad position. Let’s let the coming week pass to see how the price will evolve in order to offer (or not) better opportunities.
Ether (ETH) 3D analysis
Avalanche Technical Analysis (AVAX)
To finish this column, I wanted to give you an analysis of the Avalanche (AVAX) token which is technically perfect.
The price has been in a bullish configuration for months now, but still respects very well the breakout + retest principles that we mention in each column.
Here, the price had managed to break its last high of $80 in November 2021. Since then, the price had never returned to this zone to confirm this break, it had only gone straight towards $150.
The fall in early December allowed the price to time its retest, which served as a buy zone for many large portfolios. Now, what we want to see is a clear break of the new high at $125 in order to continue the uptrend. The theoretical target would be $180 – $190 as a first step.
If we fail here, the price would be in a swing failure pattern more commonly known as a double top. This is a very classic reversal pattern that will change the macro uptrend into a bearish one.
What seems most likely to me at the moment is a bounce off the current $114 area to look for a new ATH (new all-time high).
Avalanche Analysis (AVAX) in 3D
In conclusion
We are seeing a nice reaction on the Bitcoin (BTC) side and less on the Ether (ETH) side. Now I expect a retracement on Bitcoin to come out of small portfolios to create liquidity. Nevertheless, I remain bullish on the medium term, and I think the $53,900/$58,000 level will act as resistance in the short term. For Ether (ETH), the situation being different, a deeper retracement may be in order if the $3,850 area is lost.
For the Avalanche token (AVAX), the configuration also remains bullish. A buy here is still very coherent from a price discovery perspective.
I would like to take this opportunity to wish you all a happy end of year. See you next week for a new analysis.
It was cryptOdin to serve you.
