The Bitcoin price recently surpassed $39,000, reaching a level not seen since April 2022, marking a positive development after breaking through resistance at $38,800. According to some analysts, we can expect the king of cryptocurrencies to surpass $45,000 before the end of the year, followed by Bitcoin spot ETFs and the famous halving.
Bitcoin at $45,000 before the end of the year?
The Bitcoin price exceeded $39,000 yesterday, Saturday December 2, a point it hadn’t touched since April 2022, shortly before the collapse of the Terra ecosystem (LUNA) and the crypto market as a whole.
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After rubbing up against the famous $38,800 resistance, BTC finally managed to break through it, and even managed to touch $39,800 during the day today. The latter then fell back slightly, and is trading at around $38,500 at the time of writing.
Bitcoin price evolution from November 29 to today
According to a report by Matrixport, we can expect the Bitcoin price to now exceed $40,000, buoyed by the positive news surrounding the Bitcoin cash ETF narrative on the one hand, and on the other by the recent agreement between giant Binance and the US Department of Justice (DOJ), which lifts the sword of Damocles that has hung over the crypto exchange for many years.
According to the report, published on November 29, the BTC price was expected to exceed $38,000 before the end of the month in which it was published, “followed by a rally above $40,000 in December with 90% probability”.
“As we enter the final month of the year, we remain bullish. Historically, Bitcoin tends to rally +12% in December, in line with our year-end 2023 target of $45,000 for Bitcoin, which now looks likely.”
Markus Thielen, analyst at Matrixport
According to Coinglass data, around $145 million has been liquidated over the past 24 hours, the majority of which were short positions liquidated when the Bitcoin price rose above $38,800.
Liquidations on the crypto market from November 30 to today
The bullrun for the first half of 2024?
We’ll probably have to wait until January 8, 2024 to find out for sure whether the next bullrun will take place in the first half of next year. Indeed, as Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart recently revealed, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will make its final decision on Ark Invest’s 21 Shares Bitcoin spot ETF application between January 8 and 10.
Bloomberg’s specialists estimate a 90% chance of approval for a series of spot Bitcoin ETFs at that time, as the SEC has entered into an a priori constructive dialogue with BlackRock, Grayscale and Hashdex, among others, to propose modifications to their ETF applications.
Recent rises in the Bitcoin price have shown us just how much the crypto-currency market is now positioned around this narrative, as was demonstrated when Grayscale (which incidentally holds 3% of Bitcoins currently in circulation) won in court against the SEC regarding the transformation of its GBTC into a Bitcoin spot ETF.
Once this first milestone of ETF approvals has been passed, we’ll have to wait until next April for halving, a quadrennial event systematically followed by a rise in the Bitcoin price.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Michael Novogratz, CEO and founder of Galaxy Digital, recently stated that the approval of Bitcoin ETFs would bring in tens of billions of dollars over the course of 2024. According to him, the Bitcoin price should at least return to its highest price ever next year, just over $69,000.
