Grayscale is confident that a Bitcoin ETF will soon be approved in the United States. Although the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has not defined an official timetable, approval seems likely around January 10, the critical date for Ark Invest’s Bitcoin ETF application, on which the SEC will have to make a final ruling.
Bitcoin ETFs soon to be approved?
Grayscale persists: the approval of a Bitcoin cash ETF in the United States is definitely no longer a question of “if”, but only of “when”. As a reminder, Grayscale is the fund manager that notably runs the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), the world’s largest cryptocurrency fund, and is trying to turn it into a spot BTC ETF.
In a press release, Grayscale thus made a point of giving an update on the ins and outs of a possible approval of its GBTC into an ETF by interviewing Craig Slam, its General Counsel, as well as Edward McGee, its CFO.
First, there’s the question of timing: when will the Bitcoin Spot ETF be approved? According to Craig Slam, there is unfortunately no official timetable on this, “although the DC Circuit ruled in Grayscale’s favor in our lawsuit against the SEC in August 2023, reversing the SEC’s decision to deny NYSE’s 19b-4 application to list the GBTC on the NYSE Arca. “
It should be pointed out, however, that according to the majority of analysts, if the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) were to approve an application for a Bitcoin spot ETF, then this would be around January 10, the date on which the regulator will have to make a final decision on the application issued by Ark Invest & 21Shares.
More precisely, according to James Seyffart, analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, the most likely window seems to run from January 5 to 10:
Window is officially Jan 5th to Jan 10th. Really this means that any potential approval orders are going to come on either Monday Jan 8, Tuesday Jan 9, or Wednesday Jan 10. Mark your calendars people. https://t.co/8ob8Y6pgU5
– James Seyffart (@JSeyff) December 1, 2023
” […] All potential approval orders will arrive on either Monday, January 8, Tuesday, January 9 or Wednesday, January 10. Mark your calendars. “
According to the latest estimates from Bloomberg analysts, there is a 90% probability that a series of Bitcoin cash ETFs will be approved simultaneously around January 10. While the SEC has been rather closed until now, it has recently opened up to dialogue by organizing meetings with BlackRock, Grayscale or even more recently Hashdex, all applicants for spot BTC ETFs.
What about Grayscale’s GBTC conversion?
According to Craig Slam, Grayscale’s GBTC has been ready for conversion to a spot Bitcoin ETF for some time. Once regulatory approvals have been received from the SEC, the GBTC will be listed as soon as possible on the NYSE Arca.
Grayscale is one of the most cryptocurrency-holding entities in the world, and it is estimated that the company holds around 3% of all Bitcoins currently in circulation.
As an example, the firm holds over $24 billion in Bitcoin just for its flagship product, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. The firm also holds large quantities of LINK, MANA, Ether, Bitcoin Cash and Ethereum Classic, among others.
