Bitcoin’s price is under geopolitical pressure at the start of this week, but from a technical perspective, the annual recovery phase remains intact as long as the $90,000 support level holds. Read Vincent Ganne’s analysis.
Bitcoin Under Geopolitical Pressure
Bitcoin’s price has been struggling to recover since the start of the year, with a rally that peaked at $98,000 before a pullback set in due to ongoing massive geopolitical tensions. Despite this, BTC has been in a bullish recovery since late November, but this recovery is slow, choppy, and underperforming compared to the behavior of gold and silver in the precious metals market.
In terms of timing, this first quarter of 2026 is very similar to the “dead cat bounce” seen during the bear market of the previous cycle in 2022. If this comparison holds up, then it is likely that BTC’s recovery is not yet over. For this to happen, it is imperative to hold the $90,000 support level.
This week, starting Monday, January 19, is packed with fundamental events; BTC should make its technical decision soon. (Geopolitical developments around Greenland, the World Economic Forum in Davos where Trump is scheduled to speak, U.S. PCE inflation, and the Clarity Act).
Here are my technical observations supporting the view of further recovery by the end of February, provided the $90,000 support level holds:
- If the dead cat bounce (or bear market rally) pattern from the previous cyclical bear market repeats itself, then Bitcoin should be able to reach its 200-day moving average in February (i.e., $105,000);
- Global liquidity, as a “leading indicator,” remains on a favorable trajectory through March;
- The momentum (annual rate of change) of this global liquidity has just hit a new high; this has consistently been a forward-looking bullish factor for BTC since the low at the end of 2022.
A “bear market rally” that is not yet over
From a strictly technical perspective, the current market structure remains consistent with a continuation of the recovery trend, despite high volatility.
Bitcoin is trading within a short- to medium-term upward channel, with a series of higher lows and higher highs since mid-December. As long as the $90,000 support level holds (the 50-day moving average), BTC retains a good chance of continuing its winter rally.
Historically, during dead cat bounce phases, the market has often attempted a return to the 200-day moving average before deciding either on a sustained bullish recovery or a failure followed by a new corrective phase to conclude the cyclical bear market.
Furthermore, the correlation with global liquidity remains a key macroeconomic indicator. The historical time lag observed between the troughs in global money supply growth and Bitcoin’s lows suggests that the crypto market could still benefit from tailwinds in the coming weeks. As long as this liquidity continues to grow and the major support level of $90,000 holds, the scenario of a continued dead cat bounce toward the $100,000–$105,000 range remains plausible through the end of February.
In summary, the environment remains fragile but constructive from a technical perspective, and the market still appears to be in an unfinished technical recovery phase rather than an immediate bearish reversal.
