While stocks are climbing, Bitcoin has been following an opposite trajectory since its historic high in October. This divergence raises questions: is Bitcoin becoming an asset in its own right, detached from its usual dynamics? Its volatility remains a hindrance, but its fundamentals are bringing it closer and closer to a modern store of value.
Bitcoin goes its own way and leaves stocks soaring
Bitcoin remains a largely misunderstood, even misinterpreted, asset around the world. Different groups of individuals react differently to the risks associated with holding it. For some, its high volatility makes it too risky an asset to include in an investment portfolio. Others, on the contrary, consider this volatility to be acceptable, provided that exposure remains measured and controlled. A third category sees its fundamental characteristics (scarcity, resistance to censorship, decentralization) as the qualities of a long-term safe haven, a tool for protection against inflation and government interference, and views its volatility as an opportunity to buy more. But beyond individual beliefs and opinions, what does the market really tell us?
Since October 2025, Bitcoin has shown a decoupling from the stock market, particularly with technology indices.
While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have each risen by more than 16% in 2025, Bitcoin has fallen by nearly 30% since its historic high of $126,000 in October. Since the beginning of the year, BTC has fallen by around 5%, further accentuating its divergence from the stock markets.
This decline occurred in an environment that was nevertheless favorable to risky assets, which surprised and worried some investors. Several factors explain this reversal: a wave of profit-taking after the October peak, a slowdown in inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, and a series of liquidations in the derivatives markets.
However, on a macroeconomic level, Vincent believes that the Federal Reserve’s late pivot could reignite money creation, a factor that has historically been favorable to Bitcoin.
This contradiction suggests that Bitcoin could now evolve according to its own dynamics, a shift towards greater autonomy as a distinct macroeconomic asset.
Is Bitcoin creating its own market and breaking away from risky assets?
This opens the door to a paradox. Bitcoin is still perceived by many as a risky asset, yet it has not been following the stock markets for several months.
So, has it become a store of value, just like gold? Not exactly. Since October, it has been the stock market that has shown a strong correlation with gold.
In reality, Bitcoin seems to sit between these two worlds. It has all the characteristics of gold: scarcity, divisibility, decentralization, and a store of value function. But it also goes further: Bitcoin is more easily verifiable, transportable, and divisible than gold. These qualities may have allowed the yellow metal to retain its status as a monetary standard. Can Bitcoin then replace gold as the global monetary benchmark? It’s hard to say. It has the fundamental qualities, but only time will tell whether or not it will fulfill this role.
The main obstacle remains its volatility, which still leads it to be described as a speculative bubble, a Ponzi scheme, or an overly risky asset. However, this volatility tends to decrease with each cycle.
One thing is certain: Bitcoin is different, and its role in economic, social, and geopolitical debates is only just beginning.
