Bitcoin is entering a bearish phase, driven by a macroeconomic environment that is less favorable to risky assets. Although a first technical level likely to trigger a rebound has been reached, a continuation of the movement to the threshold that could call into question the monthly trend remains possible.
Revision of monetary policy projections
On Tuesday, November 18, 2025, at 10:54 a.m., Bitcoin was trading at around $91,100, after several days of sharp declines.
Many are wondering about the current market dynamics, particularly the factors behind this decline.
It will not have escaped anyone’s notice that this phase of price contraction is not limited to cryptocurrencies. All risky assets are affected, including gold, the ultimate safe haven asset, which is also entering a consolidation phase. The cancellation of macroeconomic data releases for October—a direct consequence of the lack of data collection during the budget shutdown—is plunging the markets, as well as the central bank, into uncertainty.
In this context, the rate cut that had been expected in December now seems unlikely. Adjustments are also noticeable in price movements.
The market now estimates a 45% chance of a rate cut in December, compared to 90% at the beginning of November.
On the Bitcoin derivatives markets, compulsive buyers, who had calmed down as the price approached $100,000, have reignited the machine, fueling the decline to $90,000.
It is still too early to know whether last night’s dip below the $90,000 threshold will be enough to dampen the enthusiasm of those desperately trying to catch a falling knife.
In fact, we are seeing an increase in financing costs while open interest is declining. This suggests the gradual closing of short positions and profit-taking, which could favor a technical rebound. Bitcoin’s performance indicators are clearly negative against the dollar across all time frames. On the other hand, Bitcoin is managing to hold its own against Ether, showing, as is often the case, greater resilience.
Weekly structure zone approaching
As we mentioned last week, the trends are mostly aligned with a downward trend, with the exception of the monthly and higher time frames, which remain favorable for Bitcoin’s continued rise.
The break below the 50-week average at the weekly close is a significant signal that puts the chart in a sustained bearish situation.
To invalidate this signal, the price must quickly return to $103,000, ideally within the next two weeks.
For such a scenario to materialize, a change must take place in the derivatives markets, which currently continue to favor a decline, in clear denial of the ongoing bearish momentum.
However, the technical level we have just reached could be an ideal support zone for a rebound.
This zone is represented by the high and low points of the structure formed between March and April, before the bullish movement that led to the historic high of $125,000.
Bitcoin could repeat the pattern seen in April 2025, when it found support at $74,000, the peak of the 2024 consolidation, before rebounding, at around $88,000.
This hypothesis is reinforced by the construction of the quarterly bullish flow, in which the price is moving between the Bollinger bands, which are still wide open, and the 7-period moving average, which is currently around $88,000.
Nevertheless, a continuation of the decline to break through the structure cannot be ruled out.
Indeed, the daily chart is firmly anchored in a bearish trend which, in order to experience an initial slowdown, must be able to regain $96,000.
If we were to continue this bearish phase, it could seek to challenge the monthly trend in confluence with the bottom of the April 2025 consolidation, around $74,000.
In the meantime, it seems reasonable to assume that this correction will not be interrupted for long without, at the very least, a rebuilding of the bullish momentum over several days.
In summary, Bitcoin is trending downward, driven by the macroeconomic context and a desperate search by buyers to find a bottom. This movement could extend to $74,000, a threshold that would need to be defended in order to maintain the monthly trend.
So, do you think BTC could reach $150,000? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.
Have a great day, and see you next week for a new Bitcoin analysis.
