Bitcoin’s bull run may not have started yet. That’s the belief of Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, who believes that despite recent records, the current rise remains modest in the face of inflation and does not yet herald a real upward movement in the market.
The bull run hasn’t started yet, according to Samson Mow
While many investors were hoping for a bullish October for Bitcoin, the opposite has happened. After reaching a new all-time high above $126,000 on October 6, the price of BTC has been falling steadily, briefly dropping below $100,000 in the last 48 hours.
Bitcoin is now teetering on the brink. After rebounding from the symbolic $100,000 threshold, the market remains suspended, waiting for a potential catalyst. Investors are wondering: will the price continue to rise, or is it already entering a new bearish cycle?
It is in this context that Samson Mow, founder of infrastructure company Jan3, which has advised several Latin American governments on their Bitcoin strategy, claims that the real bull run has not yet begun.
Bitcoin has been basically flat for 2025. If you believe in cycles, then it hasn’t topped. That means a longer cycle (cycle top in 2026?), or it means a generational bull run for a decade (like gold post ETF), or it means no more cycles again (Omegacycle). Plan accordingly. https://t.co/PNqIrchWvI
— Samson Mow (@Excellion) November 5, 2025
Bitcoin remained broadly stable in 2025. If you believe in cycles, then it has not yet reached its peak.
This could mean a longer cycle (a peak in 2026?), or a generational bull run over a decade (like gold after ETFs), or even the end of cycles as we know them (the Omegacycle).
It’s up to you to plan accordingly.According to him, the current rise is only “marginally outperforming inflation” and does not yet reflect the true potential of BTC. Compared to its 2021 peak, Bitcoin has only risen 82%, far from the +250% recorded in the previous cycle.
By falling back below $100,000, BTC is returning to the levels reached in November 2024. Worse still, against the euro and the Swiss franc, it is down 10% over one year, and has risen by only 55% against the CHF since 2021.
This performance is barely enough to offset inflation in 2025, calling into question the very existence of a bull run.
Samson Mow also questions the cyclical approach to markets. He envisions a scenario of prolonged growth, comparable to that of gold after the introduction of ETFs, when the yellow metal gained more than 400% between 2003 and 2011.
Are long-term investors selling their BTC?
Yet sentiment is at its lowest, with the Crypto and Fear Index recently pointing to “21: extreme fear,” a low since April when BTC lost 32% and revisited $75,000.
Faced with fears of potential sales by early Bitcoin holders, Mow is reassuring:
I don’t know of any OGs selling right now.
However, market sentiment is at an all-time low. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has just fallen to 21, in the “extreme fear” zone, its lowest level since April, when BTC lost 32% and briefly returned to $75,000.
Mow also urges investors to take a long-term view rather than giving in to fear. True to his optimism, he believes that the real question is not whether Bitcoin will add a zero to its price, but when.
