Bitcoin’s bull run may not have started yet. That’s the view of Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, who believes that despite recent record highs, the current rise remains modest in the face of inflation and does not yet signal the market’s true upward surge.
The bull run hasn’t started yet, according to Samson Mow
While many investors were hoping for a bullish October for Bitcoin, the exact opposite happened. After reaching a new all-time high above $126,000 on October 6, the price of BTC has been steadily declining, briefly falling below $100,000 over the past 48 hours.
Bitcoin is now teetering on the brink. After rebounding from the symbolic $100,000 threshold, the market remains on hold, awaiting a potential catalyst. Investors are wondering: will the price continue its upward trend, or is it already entering a new bear market cycle?
It is in this context that Samson Mow, founder of the infrastructure firm Jan3—which has advised several Latin American governments on their Bitcoin strategy—asserts that the real bull run has not yet begun.
Bitcoin has been basically flat for 2025. If you believe in cycles, then it hasn’t peaked.
That means a longer cycle (peak in 2026?), or it means a generational bull run lasting a decade (like gold after the ETF), or it means no more cycles (Omegacycle).
Plan accordingly. https://t.co/PNqIrchWvI
— Samson Mow (@Excellion) November 5, 2025
Bitcoin remained generally stable in 2025. If you believe in cycles, then it hasn’t reached its peak yet.
This could mean a longer cycle (a peak in 2026 ?), or a generational bull run spanning a decade (like gold after ETFs), or even the end of cycles as we know them (the Omegacycle).
It’s up to you to plan accordingly.
According to him, the current rally is only “marginally outpacing inflation” and does not yet reflect BTC’s true potential. Compared to its 2021 peak, Bitcoin has risen by only 82%, far from the +250% recorded during the previous cycle.
By falling back below $100,000, BTC has returned to the levels reached in November 2024. Worse still, against the euro and the Swiss franc, it has posted a 10% decline over the past year, and a gain limited to just 55% against the CHF since 2021.
A performance barely sufficient to offset 2025 inflation, calling into question the very existence of a bull run.
Samson Mow also questions the cyclical approach to the markets. He envisions a prolonged bull run, comparable to that of gold following the introduction of ETFs, when the yellow metal gained over 400% between 2003 and 2011.
Are long-term investors selling their BTC?
Yet sentiment is at an all-time low; the Crypto and Fear Index recently pointed to “21: extreme fear,” a low not seen since April, when BTC lost 32% and dipped back to $75,000.
Faced with fears of potential selling by early Bitcoin holders, Mow seeks to reassure:
I don’t know of any OG selling right now.
However, market sentiment is at an all-time low. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has just dropped to 21, entering the “extreme fear” zone—its lowest level since April, when BTC lost 32% and briefly dipped back to $75,000.
Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index
Mow also urges investors to maintain a long-term perspective rather than succumbing to fear. True to his optimistic nature, he believes the real question is not whether Bitcoin will add a zero to its price, but when.
