For several years now, the correlation between Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) shares and the price of Bitcoin has grown significantly stronger. This relationship is not insignificant: Strategy has become a stock market proxy for Bitcoin, due to its strategy of massively accumulating BTC on its balance sheet. Read Vincent Ganne’s technical analysis.
Strategy stock, a precursor to Bitcoin
Historically, Strategy stock has often shown an ability to anticipate movements in the price of Bitcoin, particularly during market reversals and breakouts.
In times of stress, Strategy tends to correct more sharply, but it also rebounds more quickly when sentiment improves. This behavior makes it an interesting leading indicator for analyzing potential Bitcoin recovery phases, particularly in oversold technical contexts such as the one currently observed.
Watch out for January 15 for Strategy
However, January brings a key event for Strategy that calls for caution: January 15, in connection with the MSCI index review. The inclusion, retention, or partial removal of a major index can generate significant short-term volatility, regardless of fundamentals or technical structure. These adjustments often lead to mechanical capital flows, which can cause sudden movements that are sometimes contrary to the underlying trend.
Therefore, even if the technical context points to a rebound, investors should remain vigilant around this deadline, as it could temporarily delay or accentuate movements in Strategy’s share price. Unless, of course, all of this is already factored into the price. On the other hand, if Strategy remains in the MSCI indices, there will be a very strong rebound in the share price.
A favorable basis for a technical rebound in BTC and Strategy
From a technical perspective, several converging signals point to a technical rebound in January for both Strategy and Bitcoin. Strategy’s daily and weekly charts show an arrival at major support zones, built up during previous accumulation phases.
Momentum oscillators (see the DSS BRESSERT technical indicator below) show advanced oversold conditions, accompanied by bullish divergences, which are often precursors to a short- to medium-term reversal.
On the Bitcoin side, the psychological threshold of $100,000 plays a pivotal technical role and could be tested by the end of January.
In conclusion, although caution remains warranted in the short term due to institutional deadlines in mid-January, current technical conditions suggest that Strategy and Bitcoin could enter a technical rebound phase during January.
For investors, it is less a question of anticipating an immediate new bull market than of identifying an opportunity to catch their breath after a marked correction phase in the fourth quarter of 2025.
As is often the case, Strategy’s reaction could set the pace for the next move in Bitcoin, which continues to benefit from very bullish support from the momentum of global M2 liquidity.
