Since Bitcoin’s nearly 30% drop since early October, the key question for investors has been simple: Are we witnessing the end of the post-halving bull cycle, or just a temporary correction before a new peak? Here is Vincent Ganne’s technical analysis of BTC.
Between Cyclical Confirmation and a Contradictory Signal from Global Liquidity
Since Bitcoin’s price fell nearly 30% since early October, the central question for investors is simple: Are we witnessing the end of the post-halving bull cycle, or just an interim correction before a new high?
However, two major analytical tools offer conflicting conclusions: on the one hand, the time-cycle correlation chart clearly suggests that the cyclical peak has been reached. On the other hand, the annual growth rate of global liquidity (M2 YoY) has just hit a new high, and historically, Bitcoin has consistently reached a new high within two months of this signal.
The first chart, a cycle synchronization table based on the three previous halvings, shows that the average time between a halving and the peak of the next cycle ranges from 366 to 546 days.
However, in the current cycle, the estimated end date falls around October 6, 2025, 534 days after the halving… which corresponds precisely to the point where Bitcoin reached its recent peak before retracing sharply.
The correlation is striking:
- the 2024–2025 cycle aligns almost perfectly with past timeframes;
- the “since the previous peak” and “since the start of the cycle” metrics also fall within historical ranges;
This analysis therefore unequivocally concludes that the cycle’s peak likely occurred in early October, and that the current decline is consistent with the onset of a structural bear market.
The main counterargument: the momentum of global M2 liquidity
However, a macroeconomic analysis of liquidity contradicts the previous conclusion. The second chart, from Coinglass, shows that the annual growth rate of global M2 has just reached a new high, surpassing previous peaks since the low point in 2022.
On each previous occasion, the pattern was identical:
- a new M2 YoY peak,
- followed one to two months later by a new Bitcoin high.
This correlation has never been invalidated. And most importantly:
- Bitcoin has not yet reached a new high since this latest M2 record,
- liquidity growth is one of the fundamental drivers of the BTC price
This signal therefore points to a bullish rebound, even though the market has fallen by 30%, and suggests that the October high was not the final peak, but possibly an intermediate stage before a year-end bullish rally.
Conclusion: a peak… perhaps, but not necessarily
The cyclical picture and the structure of the crypto market point to a peak having indeed been reached. But the dynamics of global M2 liquidity suggest the opposite.
In other words:
- cyclically: yes, the peak fits perfectly;
- from a macro-financial perspective: no, a new peak remains likely within the next two months.
