Recent movements have negatively impacted the Ether chart, which is now hovering between a drop back below $2,800 and a return to $4,000. If it hopes to return to its highs, Ethereum must maintain weekly closes above $3,500.
End of a cycle or just a pause?
It is Wednesday, November 12, 2025, and the price of Ether is hovering around $3,500.
Our last technical analysis of ETH was on October 15, 2025, when the price was around $4,100.
Since then, Ether has fallen back below the $4,000 mark, affected by a generally more uncertain market, in a crypto environment divided between holders anticipating the end of the cycle and more ambitious new entrants aiming for unprecedented highs in 2025 or 2026.
This ambivalent climate, exacerbated by traditional markets losing their bearings, continues to weigh on price movements.
The topic of Ether’s outperformance relative to Bitcoin remains relevant, but there has been little change since this summer, a period during which ETH began a significant rebound that it has now been consolidating for twelve weeks.
Having returned close to the 50-week moving average and the trend’s polarity threshold, the ETH/BTC pair must quickly demonstrate renewed strength.
The low observed last week constitutes a relevant benchmark that could serve as a invalidation level. A slight dip below this level may be tolerated, given the proximity to the 50-week SMA, but no close should occur below it if we wish to avoid the development of statistics favoring a new phase of sustained underperformance.
Weekly ETH/BTC price chart
Unsurprisingly, Ether firmly holds its second place in the cryptocurrency rankings, with a market capitalization of $420 billion. However, it is currently in a consolidation phase, both against BTC and the dollar.
Ethereum is trading in a bearish trend.
Ether has been trading in a weekly bearish trend since the confirmed break below $4,200.
Now back below $4,000, the possibility of a dip into the $2,800 zone—the confluence of the 50% retracement of the bear market and the major pivot point of the past 18 months—is on the horizon.
This zone must be defended to prevent the price action from falling further into a bear market.
For now, market signals do not seem to indicate that such a scenario could occur in the immediate future, as the 50-week moving average has managed to boost the price.
To maintain the prospect of a short-term rebound, ETH must sustain weekly closes above $3,500.
This threshold is a pivotal level that will act as a pivot point between the scenarios of a return to $4,800 and more bearish ones heading toward $2,000.
Weekly ETH price chart
Market dynamics remain impacted by recent movements, however, and the bearish trend that has developed may take time to reverse.
Furthermore, the zone between $3,815 and $4,210 is expected to present significant resistance, likely causing friction before a resolution can occur.
To set the stage for such a move, Ethereum must rebuild a daily structure and realign bullish highs and lows.
A first step, with the formation of a high this Monday, has just been taken.
Now, the asset must form a low and break above $3,658 to validate an attempt at a daily bullish reconstruction.
Let us not forget, however, that at this stage, the trend remains bearish. Failing to form a new high above the previous one implies that, at best, we could see a sideways consolidation phase, and at worst, the correction could continue.
In the event of a continued downtrend, the $2,800 area is a likely candidate for the price to take another breather.
ETH daily price chart
In summary, recent movements have weakened Ether’s chart pattern, which is now caught between a potential drop below $2,800 and an attempt to reclaim the $4,000 threshold. To have any hope of returning to its highs, Ethereum must absolutely maintain weekly closes above $3,500.
So, do you think ETH can outperform the crypto market again? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.
Have a great day, and we’ll see you next week for a new technical analysis of Ethereum.
