Time is passing and trading sessions are looking much the same for Bitcoin, which is still unable to muster a strong upward movement that would allow it to significantly exceed the levels reached in December in the wake of the US presidential election. Is this cycle a lost cause?
The Fed’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday, September 17, will be decisive
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday, September 17, will be decisive for the trajectory of the US stock markets at the end of 2025.
Depending on Jerome Powell’s choice, scenarios range from a stock market crash to a new historic high, with more neutral phases of consolidation in between. In my view, there are several options, each with its own specific implications for the S&P 500 and the price of Bitcoin.
The impact on risky assets on the stock market will depend on the nature of the Fed’s pivot:
- No pivot: in this scenario, BTC and the S&P 500 are doomed to undergo a very sharp correction;
- Technical pivot: an isolated rate cut to adjust to the US labor market would be the lesser evil but would not be enough to drive a significant year-end pump in BTC;
- Real pivot: whether healthy (declining inflation) or unhealthy (pivot for employment), a series of US federal funds rate cuts would give some breathing room to risky assets on the stock market, particularly those most sensitive to lower financing costs (small caps on the stock market and altcoins on the crypto market).
It is therefore Jerome Powell’s Fed, the 12 voting members of the FOMC, who will decide next Wednesday whether or not the cycle peaked on August 14 at $124,000.
Based on the calendar average of the past three cycles, there is still hope for a strong bullish phase this fall
Returning to technical analysis factors that strictly concern the BTC cycle, is there still reason to hope for a spectacular end to the cycle?
The answer is YES.
The chart below compares our current cycle (the black curve) with the calendar average of the past three cycles. If our current cycle aligns with this inter-cycle average, then we could see a bullish market in October and November.
