While discussing Bitcoin cycles during a podcast, Morgan Stanley analysts noted that BTC is “currently in the fall.” Here’s a look at their perspective.
Morgan Stanley analysts discuss Bitcoin cycles
Since last month, cryptocurrencies have entered a phase of uncertainty. During a podcast on the subject, Morgan Stanley analysts Michael Cyprys and Denny Galindo discussed the topic, focusing in particular on the famous 4-year cycles. According to Denny Galindo, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently in autumn:
We divide the cycle into four seasons: spring, summer, fall, and winter. Each has its own characteristics. We are currently in fall, the harvest season—the time to take profits. But the big question is: how long will this fall last before the next winter? Historically, cycles end around November 30, but that could change. It’s a topic of debate in the crypto world.
Throughout this discussion, the two analysts revisited how the bank views cryptocurrencies. For example, Morgan Stanley recommends a BTC exposure of 0 to 4%, depending on each investor’s profile. They compare Bitcoin to digital gold, and regarding ETFs, they explain that Morgan Stanley is focusing on Bitcoin at the expense of other assets in the ecosystem:
Little interest in other cryptos for now. We do not yet allow advisors to solicit investments in Ethereum or Solana, but that may come.
After reaching an all-time high (ATH) of over $126,000, BTC is now trading at $105,000, down nearly 17% from that ATH. Year-to-date, its performance is up 10.5%:
BTC price (daily data)
While the $100,000 level has held for now, price action over the coming weeks will put Morgan Stanley analysts’ theory to the test.
