The task of taking stock at the end of a trading year is a classic one with many advantages, not least of which is to have a good basis for looking ahead to the next year. Vincent Ganne offers you a 2022 stock market review and his scenario for the next two years for the bitcoin price
Bitcoin is last in the class in 2022
This is it! The stock market year is definitely over this week, trading volume is already completely anemic and price action is not expected to have any more big surprises until the first trading sessions of 2023.
As a rule, this is when serious analysts do the classic end-of-year job of taking stock of the past year’s major market trends, both fundamentally and technically.
I have turned to a selection of assets that represent each of the five major asset classes of the financial markets:
- The equity market;
- The bond market;
- The foreign exchange market (FOREX);
- The commodities market;
- The crypto market.
Note that the status of “asset class” for the crypto market is not yet accepted by all.
So 2022 is a year of overall decline for stock indices, bonds and cryptos. In the end, Gold does best with a zero performance, demonstrating its defensive aspect.
Bitcoin’s price ended the year down 65%, which is ugly, very ugly. However, the stock most traded by US retail investors did not do so well: Tesla’s share price is down more than 71% since the beginning of the year.
Is a 65% fall in 12 months enough to warrant a clear upward rally in 2023? Of course not. On the other hand, I am convinced that next year will be the year when the first roots of the next bullish cycle will be laid down; to put it plainly, this new year will see the end of the bear market.
Chart showing the relative performance throughout 2022 of selected components of all major asset classes
Bitcoin, Vincent Ganne’s scenario for the next 2 years
The year 2022 is therefore a year to forget for the crypto market, a year of fundamental and technical purge; indeed, one can only be pleased with the ousting of a character of the type of Sam Bankman-Fried, ex-CEO of FTX, and the starting point that has been given to the implementation of an auditing process of crypto platforms. The first part of 2023 should remain colourful because make no mistake, the purge is probably not over yet, especially on the altcoin environment.
I don’t have a crystal ball at my disposal, but I do have my charts, my experience and my beliefs. By putting all this together in a shaker, I can propose a market scenario for the next two years:
- The first half of 2023 will still be difficult but will see the first roots of the next bull market;
- Significant rebounds will occur between the second half of 2023 and the next halving of bitcoin (spring 2024);
- The market will break through the $30K resistance and head for its ATH between mid-2024 and the year 2025.
So here is my humble opinion and below you have a graphical representation. Thank you for reading, I wish you all a happy New Year’s Eve
Graph showing the Japanese candlesticks in weekly data of the bitcoin price with Vincent Ganne’s prospective scenario for the next 2 years
