According to the founder of Cryptoquant, unless Strategy sells its BTC, we won’t see a 70% drop in Bitcoin during this cycle. What should we make of this hypothesis?
The founder of Cryptoquant shares his thoughts on Bitcoin’s (BTC) decline
On Monday, we attempted to project the potential low that Bitcoin’s (BTC) price could reach during this bear market. Based on a few assumptions, we hypothesized that the price could bottom out between $28,300 and $34,300, drawing on historical data, although it is extremely difficult to establish a reliable model.
For his part, Ki Young Ju, the founder of Cryptoquant, estimated that BTC would not fall by 70%, as we have seen in previous cycles, provided that Strategy maintains its position:
Early holders are showing significant unrealized gains thanks to ETFs and MSTR [Strategy, ed.] purchases. They have been taking profits since the beginning of last year, but strong inflows have kept Bitcoin around $100,000. Today, those inflows have dried up. MSTR has been one of the main drivers of this rally. Unless Saylor significantly liquidates his holdings, we won’t see a 70% crash like in previous cycles. Selling pressure continues, so the bottom hasn’t been clearly identified yet, but this bear market will likely result in a long period of sideways consolidation within a wide range.
At the same time, the analyst relies on Realized Cap, an indicator that calculates BTC’s market capitalization based on the value of each bitcoin at the time of its last transaction. While a rise in Realized Cap suggests an influx of capital, Ki Young Ju observes that this indicator has flattened, indicating a lack of new entrants. In his view, “when market capitalization falls in such an environment, we cannot speak of a bull market.”
Returning to the case of Strategy, the extent of the potential future low still remains to be determined, even in the absence of a “70% crash.” And for good reason: the price of BTC has already plummeted by 38%, even though Strategy has effectively maintained its positions and there has not yet been any major internal crisis within the crypto ecosystem during this cycle.
In the past, Ki Young Ju has also been wrong, notably when he estimated as early as March 2025 that we were already in a bear market. While it is precisely the nature of analysts to be wrong, only time will tell what the actual low point for BTC will be during this bear market.
