Despite its legendary volatility, the cryptocurrency market has until now been based on the repetition of certain cycles, such as the various Bitcoin halvings. According to these experts, this logic is now obsolete.
The 4-year crypto cycle is dead
The cryptocurrency market often appears to be a digital jungle where volatility and a total absence of rules reign supreme. However, its development responds to much more precise dynamics than it appears, such as the repetition of cycles associated with its bullish periods.
Until now, this logic has made it possible to predict with varying degrees of accuracy the prospect of a new historic high for the price of Bitcoin following the triggering of one of its halvings scheduled every four years, which was followed by a collateral effect of a spillover of gains to Ethereum and the altcoin market, in descending order of capitalization.
A “transmission mechanism” that would have ‘weakened’ considerably in 2025, according to market maker Wintermute, to the point of becoming “obsolete.” Indeed, they believe that “market performance is no longer dictated by self-fulfilling timing narratives, but by the direction of liquidity flows and the concentration of investor attention.”
New financial vehicles, particularly ETFs and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs), have evolved into “walled garden” models .” While they provide sustained demand for a few large-cap assets, they do not naturally spread to the entire market.
Wintermute
Cryptocurrencies: a more established asset class
According to Wintermute analysts, retail investor interest over the past year has “largely shifted to stocks and prediction markets,” with a few major altcoins—notably Bitcoin and Ethereum—absorbing “the vast majority of new capital.”
In this particular context, the cycles associated with various popular crypto narratives have had much shorter lifespans, with an average of around 20 days for 2025, compared to 60 days in the previous year and results still above 40 days in 2022 and 2023.
The year 2025 did not deliver the expected rally, but in hindsight, it could mark the beginning of a transition for cryptocurrencies from purely speculative assets to a more established asset class.
Wintermute
With this assessment in mind, Wintermute analysts are attempting to identify three trends that could favor further market expansion, bearing in mind that at least one of these options must materialize for this scenario to come to fruition:
- The opening up of ETFs or DATs outside institutional channels;
- A Bitcoin or Ether bull run powerful enough to have an impact on the altcoin market;
- A return of interest in crypto among retail investors.
