Bitcoin is ending the year just a few steps away from where it started. At less than 4% below its price at the beginning of 2025, the cryptocurrency could still avoid closing lower. But with volatility at a low ebb, the market seems to be hanging on to the possibility of a last-minute surge.
Bitcoin price just 4% off the status quo
As 2025 draws to a close, the Bitcoin price remains in the red and has only a few days left to make up for the bad image it is leaving behind.
To end the year on a high note, it would need to regain at least 4% from its annual opening price of around $93,455.
Despite a difficult start to the year, Bitcoin managed to reach a new all-time high of over $126,000 in October, buoyed by renewed enthusiasm in the risk asset markets.
But the momentum was short-lived. The sharp fall on October 10, which saw the price drop from $121,000 to $104,000 in a matter of hours, permanently weakened the upward momentum. This correction then continued to a low of around $80,600 in November, wiping out much of the gains accumulated since the beginning of the year.
Bitcoin is now trading without any real direction, unable to regain the momentum that marked the beginning of the year. As December 31 approaches, all eyes are on the annual candle: without a quick rebound, 2025 could become the first post-halving year to close in the red, a situation perceived by many investors as an anomaly in Bitcoin’s historical cycles.
Furthermore, if the price remains close to its annual opening level, the candle could form a “doji,” a technical pattern often associated with a period of indecision in the markets. This type of configuration is sometimes interpreted as a potential reversal signal, which could fuel speculation about the end of BTC’s long-term bull cycle.
What to expect in 2026? 5 major events that could shake up Bitcoin
As 2025 ends on a note of uncertainty, investors are already looking ahead to 2026, a year that promises to be eventful in terms of geopolitics and economics.
The most closely watched issue will undoubtedly be the change of chair at the US Federal Reserve, scheduled for May 2026.
Donald Trump’s early nomination of a successor in the first months of the year could strongly influence market dynamics, as the newcomer will likely impact the markets as soon as his appointment is confirmed, even before he takes office. The future of interest rates, liquidity, and therefore the appetite for alternative assets such as Bitcoin, will depend on it.
Markets are also keeping an eye on the US midterm elections in November, which could redraw the political balance for the second half of Trump’s term.
In Europe, the ECB’s decisions will also be closely watched, as the institution could stabilize a monetary policy that has remained accommodative in 2025.
