Bitcoin appears to be entering a slowdown phase following the correction that began in early November. A rebound is currently underway, but will it be enough to validate a bullish reversal paving the way for new highs, or will it mark the end of the previous rally?
Expectations of rate cuts are yo-yoing
On Tuesday, November 25, 2025, at 10:41 a.m., Bitcoin is trading around $86,800, after slowing down in the $80,000 range, reflecting an attempt to curb a sustained downward trend.
The NFP employment figure released at the end of last week reignited tensions surrounding the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, reducing expectations of a rate cut in December to 30%.
This structural signal suggested a change in market direction, triggering risk-off sentiment and arbitrage unfavorable to risky assets.
Against this backdrop, the major stock market indices fell, while cryptocurrencies plunged into a marked bearish sequence, reminding us that a downturn remains entirely possible.
Yes, the widespread optimism that had prevailed for several months may be running out of steam. The market has reminded us of this in recent days through a rise in fears, affecting a wide range of financial assets. However, statements by Federal Reserve members on Friday had a calming effect: a consensus seems to be emerging in favor of further rate cuts at the next meeting.
Of course, inflation remains a concern, and the job market is showing signs of recovery. Yet this morning, 80.9% of market participants anticipate a rate cut, paving the way for a moderate but confident rebound.
In the Bitcoin derivatives markets, sentiment is once again consistent with the prevailing fear, and sellers are now in the majority.
This sentiment is also prevailing at the start of this week, despite a rebound of around 10% for BTC.
It is reassuring that the bearish denial is coming to an end, which could finally allow a bottom to be established.
Nevertheless, the situation should be monitored closely. Indeed, a too rapid return of the buying bias could be punished one last time.
Bitcoin’s performance indicators essentially reflect the correction observed in recent weeks, while highlighting BTC’s resilience compared to its counterpart Ethereum. However, the momentum seems to be gradually reversing, as evidenced by recent 24-hour data trends.
A technical zone conducive to building a sustainable low point?
In several analyses, we have highlighted the clear denial of the decline, which was clearly visible in the derivatives markets, despite a rapid and powerful movement.
This contradictory behavior, which saw long positions opening during the declines, fueled the movement and made it difficult to build a consolidation phase with a view to restructuring upwards.
Now, in an area with a high probability of a rebound, in the weekly structure built from March to April 2025, Bitcoin is offering a satisfactory initial reaction on contact with $80,000, the polarity zone of this same consolidation zone.
It is difficult, for the moment, to characterize the current movement: it could be a simple technical rebound or a correction in order to continue the weekly bearish phase that began in early November when the $103,000 level was broken.
In the latter case, BTC could seek to reach a new low below the previous one. The $98,000 threshold is a rebound target which, if rejected, could confirm this idea.
A second, broader zone can also be considered in a deeper “dead cat bounce” type correction: it is located between $103,000 and $108,000.
The price reaction in these two zones, if we revisit them, will be extremely important.
The above assumptions may take time to develop. The current downtrend may, like the structure built at the end of the first quarter of 2025, require a few weeks before it provides a sufficiently solid foundation for a rebound.
This sideways transition phase would logically fit into a macroeconomic context awaiting key answers, thus providing the time needed to lay the foundations for a possible new bullish phase.
It is also possible that the price could fall further, close to $74,000, the level of the last major monthly low. Long time frames rarely provide false signals, so if we break this level, it is likely that the price of Bitcoin will seek to reach $55,000.
On the daily chart, the downward trend that had been underway seems to be losing momentum with the 7-day moving average having been crossed. However, structurally, there is no major signal that could indicate that the low point has been reached.
The reaction is clearly visible, and Monday’s confirmation, continuing Sunday’s movement, is also good news. However, it is very rare for such a powerful bearish trend to reverse without a minimum of effort.
For the next few sessions, we will be monitoring the completion of the peak of the new bullish leg currently developing, which should provide an essential benchmark.
Once this peak is validated, it will provide us with reliable information to measure the areas to which BTC could fall back in order to build a higher low than the previous one, which is necessary for the reversal to take place.
At the current stage of development, considering that the peak was reached yesterday, a throwback to the $83,000 to $84,000 zone could be expected in order to build the rest of the reversal process.
If this attempt fails, we will have to consider a new shift southward to establish the low point.
Join our premium Cryptoast Academy group, where we share altcoin analysis charts every week!
In summary, Bitcoin is still in a downtrend, although a rebound has begun. At this stage, there are no signs of a reversal. However, the zone remains favorable for a bullish rebound, but we will have to wait for confirmation. So, do you think BTC can reach $150,000? Feel free to share your opinion in the comments. Have a great day, and see you next week for a new Bitcoin analysis.
