The massive influx of institutions into the Bitcoin market is triggering a change in its development dynamics. And for good reason: traditional financial players are already anticipating the end of BTC’s rise, while individual investors are preparing for a prolonged phase. Who will prevail?
Bitcoin at $130,000 in 3 to 6 months
Is Bitcoin experiencing its last bull cycle, following the pattern of its previous historic bull runs? The question arises in light of the massive influx of institutional investors, announced in 2021 by Goldman Sachs analysts as “the key to creating a certain type of stability in the market.”
This situation is regularly studied by the analysis firm Glassnode, in partnership with the institutional division of the cryptocurrency exchange platform Coinbase, as part of its quarterly report Charting Crypto, this time entitled “Navigating Uncertainty.”
This survey was conducted between September 17 and October 3 among more than 120 institutional and retail investors worldwide, with the aim of determining trends in the cryptocurrency market, such as the bullish outlook still applicable to the price of BTC in the coming months.
This is a topic on which institutional and retail investors seem to agree. Indeed, optimism prevails with a large majority, expressed by 67% of institutional investors and 62% of retail investors, that BTC will reach $130,000 in 3 to 6 months.
End of the bull run or start of a new bull market pattern?
However, this consensus on the target price is at odds with a very different view of Bitcoin’s momentum beyond this next historic peak. Indeed, retail investors generally believe that this rise will be part of a more sustainable bullish trend, now freed from the four-year cycle of halvings.
For their part, 45% of institutional investors envisage a more mixed scenario, with a bull market that is already on the verge of turning bearish after a “final surge.” The greatest risk for the coming months is clearly—for both camps—the persistent macroeconomic uncertainty.
David Duong, head of research at Coinbase Institutional, remains optimistic, however, given “strong liquidity, a favorable macroeconomic environment, and encouraging regulatory developments.” This is an opportunity for Bitcoin to “exceed market expectations.”
In terms of monetary policy, we expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to make two further rate cuts this quarter, which could prompt investors to redeploy some of the $7 trillion currently held in money market funds.
David Duong
Regarding the current slowdown in Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), he believes that this sector will still represent “a significant source of demand in the coming quarter.” Nevertheless, he admits that “the investment environment remains complex,” particularly with the shutdown of US institutions.
