While Bitcoin was discovering its price just two weeks ago, it is now back down to $110,000. This decline could force a reassessment of BTC’s outlook for the end of the year. Should we give up on the $200,000 target?
Bitcoin: a BTC price of $200,000 “highly unlikely” for 2025
Since crossing the symbolic threshold of $100,000 in December last year, Bitcoin has been attempting to continue its upward trend, supported by growing institutional adoption. It had the opportunity to set a new record on August 14, with the price of BTC exceeding $124,000 for the first time.
However, just over ten days later, the trend is very different. BTC has fallen back to the $110,000 level, forcing investors to look downwards again, towards $105,000 to start with, or even lower.
According to analysts at 10x Research, there are multiple reasons for Bitcoin’s decline, to the point that this third quarter is already shaping up to be the worst of the year in terms of BTC performance. As a result, the often-mentioned target of $200,000 by 2025, cited by Bernstein, Bitwise, Standard Chartered, and Arthur Hayes, seems compromised, to say the least.
Although the average price target of reputable analysts is $192,000, reaching a level close to $200,000 this year seems highly unlikely.
10x Research
At best, $140,000 by the end of the year
To explain why they are questioning this target, analysts at 10x Research point to a slowdown in inflows into the Bitcoin market, as well as miners under pressure from a rapidly changing market and seasonal patterns resurfacing as traders become overconfident.
The result of this equation seems obvious: in the “not as obvious as it seems” scenario of BTC reaching $140,000 by the end of the year, the probability of achieving this target remains equivalent to a coin toss of around 54%. That’s a 27% increase from the current level of $110,000.
For analysts at 10x Research, the current situation boils down to “the growing gap between market expectations and what the data shows.” That’s why they are now posting “a bearish trend model for Bitcoin.”
We have taken a more cautious stance on Bitcoin as we enter August. (…) A few overlooked factors are quietly shaping BTC’s trajectory towards the end of the year — and they are not the ones most investors are watching.
Can we still hope for a Bitcoin surge before the end of the year? Or should we expect a significant change in momentum, given that the monthly close for August may struggle to exceed the previous one, set at $116,000? For bettors on the Polymarket platform, the $125,000 level remains the most likely, with a probability currently set at over 70%.
