Summer 2025 confirms the strength of the crypto market, with Bitcoin setting new records and a momentum that seems to fit perfectly with the recurring pattern of halving cycles. Traditionally, the fourth year of the cycle, the one following the halving, marks a phase of sustained growth before the end of the cycle approaches. This situation raises two questions today: how high can BTC climb in the short term, and is a shift to an “altcoin season” imminent?
Bitcoin: technical signals aligned to target between $127,000 and $135,000 for early September
The last few weeks have seen BTC break through a major technical milestone with the break of a downtrend line connecting the highs of the two previous cycles based on weekly closing prices. This strong signal confirms the historically bullish seasonality observed in August at the end of the cycle, i.e., the year following the quadrennial halving. The bitcoin price trend is therefore bullish as long as the support level of $110,000 is maintained.
Based on the average of the last three cycles (2012, 2016, 2020), the projection for early September is around $130,000 if the market continues to stick to the inter-cycle average (see the second chart below). This scenario is supported by the current chart pattern: since July, prices have been trading in a bullish flag pattern, which they broke out of to the upside, with a successful pullback to $112,000 at the end of July. The breakout from this pattern gives a technical target of between $127,000 and $135,000 for the end of August, a price target that is in line with the average curve of the three previous cycles (those linked to the halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020).
BTC dominance: the 60% threshold is being broken, confirming the favorable period for altcoins
While BTC still has upside potential for the end of its current cycle, history shows that at the end of a cycle, capital rotates towards altcoins, which is what is happening now, particularly with ETH, but not exclusively. The main barometer to watch to anticipate this shift is Bitcoin’s dominance, i.e., the proportion of its capitalization relative to the overall crypto market.
Today, this dominance is breaking through the 60% threshold. As long as this threshold acts as support, BTC will retain its leadership. But a clear break below this level at the end of the week, as seen in 2021, would pave the way for an altseason where many altcoins could outperform BTC to end the cycle.
The alignment of bullish technical signals on BTC and signs of a rotation towards altcoins bode well for the second half of August. To sum up, here’s what I’m aiming for:
- $130,000 by early September: median target based on cycle averages, bull flag and trend indicators.
- 60% dominance will be broken to the downside, extending the current favorable period for altcoins: this is the symbolic and technical boundary between a BTC-dominated market and a favorable dynamic for altcoins.
