After the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, the cryptocurrency world expected spot Ethereum ETFs to follow without difficulty. But that may not be the case, according to several analysts. What to expect
Ethereum ETFs make little noise
Why are we hearing so little about future Ethereum ETFs? That’s the question posed by several Bloomberg analysts, who wonder about their approval. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas tells The Block that approval in May is less likely than expected. The probability falls to 30%, according to his estimates.
Last January, both Eric Balchunas and his colleague James Seyffart estimated that the probability of approval by May was high: 60-70%. But this is no longer the case, and this is due to the marked silence on the part of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the candidates.
As a reminder, it is in fact the SEC that approves the candidates, and it has not communicated on the subject for several months. As James Seyffart points out on X, this raises questions:
This Ethereum ETF cycle feels like the opposite of Bitcoin ETF approval odds at the moment. The more we see/hear (and don’t see/hear) the less optimistic I become.
We’re ~73 days from the deadline and there really seems to be little to no movement https://t.co/N6OpM870XF
– James Seyffart (@JSeyff) March 11, 2024
The more we hear and see nothing, the less optimistic I become. We’re 73 days from deadline, and there seems to be little, if any, movement. “
Have Bitcoin ETFs paved the way?
Certainly, the Bitcoin ETFs alone have already made a breakthrough: other ETFs will therefore be able to take advantage of the milestones that have been set and comply with the rules that have been clarified. Some argue that this is the reason why Ethereum ETFs are little talked about. But there is still this marked silence on the part of the applicants and the SEC.
Indeed, there is no rush to apply, as was the case with Bitcoin. On the other hand, the SEC had clarified several details regarding the consideration of cryptocurrencies a few weeks and days before the approval. So far, the American financial watchdog doesn’t seem to have tackled the subject.
This doesn’t mean, of course, that Ethereum ETFs won’t be approved this year. But it does indicate that the May deadline may be optimistic, and that it may take a little longer for the SEC to give the green light. Given the considerable success of Bitcoin ETFs, the question is therefore not “if”, but “when”.
