Back at the bottom of the range, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) are resuming a dangerous downward momentum that could lead to a further fall of the crypto-currencies in the coming days if they fail to rebound. An update on the scenario and the next targets that seem to be looming.
Bitcoin is testing the bottom of its range again
While still in its range between $18,600 and $25,000 since June, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to recover and is once again on its daily support.
Will this level, which had already allowed the price to rebound four times in the past, allow BTC to regain a bullish momentum once again? Nothing is less certain.
Figure 1: Bitcoin Daily Price Chart
Despite a tentative rebound this week, our analysis from a fortnight ago has not changed. The price failed to break back through the middle of the range on its last attempt and the rejection on this level is all the more relevant as it also corresponds to multiple resistances characterized by the lower trendline of a Bear Flag/Ascending Bevel as well as the Ichimoku cloud.
This rejection of the $22,000 level is not a good sign, as it has allowed the liquidity available on this level to be used and early shorts to be liquidated, which could give sellers enough strength to go much lower, towards the $16,130 level (the objective of the breakout of the Ascending Beam), and then the $14,400 level if the $16,000 level is broken (the objective of the breakout of the Bear Flag).
The bearish scenario therefore seems to be favoured, supported by the Chikou Span free of any obstacles, confirming the bearish configuration as long as it is under the price and under the various curves of the Ichimoku system. To invalidate this bearish scenario already well underway, it will be essential for the price to manage to break the top of the range around $25,00 0. In the meantime, everything is blocking the price and the next few days will be both decisive and perilous.
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Ethereum (ETH) is back in the danger zone
Since The Merge, the price of Ethereum (ETH) has only fallen. Our last analysis projecting a return of the price around $762 seems to be confirmed, with the breakout of this Bevel affirmed notably by the Chikou Span under resistance.
Figure 2: Ether price chart (Daily)
Like the BTC, the ETH did not manage to break above its range between $1,000 and $2,000. The price has fallen back below the middle of the range and it is therefore a dangerous zone on which the price will absolutely have to bounce if buyers want to avoid seeing the cryptocurrency fall back below $1,000.
For now, the configuration remains largely bearish with the price forming an “M” pattern, as well as a Bevel broken from below. The target is at $762 (height carried over to the breakout) and everything is in the way of price here too: the trendline low, the cloud, the Kijun and the Tenkan.
So will Ether break back below $1,000? That is the target that has been triggered by the break of this pattern from below. To invalidate this bearish scenario, the price will have to manage to break the range from above, and thus to get back above $2,000. This seems quite complicated as the economic context remains fragile.
In conclusion
Bitcoin and Ethereum are still clearly in a downtrend and are unable to break through their resistance levels. Bearish scenarios are to be preferred as long as prices fail to break their range from above.
