The Top Match Between EneFed: A Risk of a “Hawkish Rate Cut” for Bitcoin
The Federal Reserve is meeting on December 9 and 10 amid a context where expectations of a rate cut are playing a central role in the recent volatility of cryptocurrencies and other markets. A gap between market expectations and the Fed’s new projections could reignite selling pressure.
A Closely Watched Meeting
On December 9 and 10, members of the Federal Reserve Committee will meet for the last time this year to update monetary policy—a crucial decision for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, given the recent volatility. A significant portion of the turbulence observed in recent weeks can be attributed to the changes in rate cut expectations, as well as recent pressure on risky assets caused by downward revisions to those expectations.
Source: TradingView / Daily chart of the S&P 500 and Bitcoin
Markets Set for a Lull as They Await the Fed
The implied probability of another 25-basis-point cut in December fell from over 90% in late October to about 30% on November 20, following inflation data that proved more resilient than expected and Jerome Powell’s wait-and-see stance at the previous meeting. However, this scenario has regained credibility in recent days thanks to dovish comments from several influential members of the central bank, notably John Williams and Christopher Waller.
The probability has thus risen to about 80%, triggering a strong rebound in risky assets. The S&P 500 erased its losses to end November with a very slight gain, while the price of Bitcoin (BTC) narrowed its decline to about 15% thanks to a rebound of more than 10%.
It is now unlikely that this 80% probability will change significantly between now and the meeting, given the lack of major macroeconomic data and Fed speeches on the calendar. In terms of the risk/return profile, these expectations now appear relatively high in light of the arguments put forward by Jerome Powell in October in favor of keeping rates unchanged—arguments that remain fully valid.
Since the last meeting, inflation has come in higher than expected and remains about 1 percentage point above the Fed’s target, while the latest employment figures show no notable deterioration. The rise in unemployment was primarily driven by new entrants to the labor market.
The Fed’s projections for 2026 will also be crucial
Beyond the rate decision, the new economic projections released at this quarterly meeting will be just as important. Each member of the Committee presents their projections for growth, inflation, and interest rates over the next three years. A comparison with the September projections will be decisive for the markets, particularly regarding 2026. In September, the Committee anticipated only one additional 25-basis-point cut in 2026, whereas markets currently expect at least two. If the Committee sticks to its September projections, selling pressure could quickly return to risky assets.
The key figure to watch will be the ‘median’ projection for the Federal Funds rate in 2026.
In my view, the risks are skewed more to the downside in the short term. For the Fed to provide genuine support for risky assets on December 10, it would need to exceed current expectations—in other words, cut rates by 25 basis points and project at least two additional cuts next year. However, the most likely scenario, in my view, is a “hawkish rate cut” in December—that is, a cut accompanied by a firm tone and projections largely unchanged from those in September. The new projections will be available on this page.
Mistakes and a missed penalty—substitute Janssen saves a late point against Stuttgart
Thanks to substitute Marek Janssen, Rot-Weiss Essen salvaged a point at home against VfB Stuttgart II.
Rot-Weiss Essen salvaged a point against VfB Stuttgart II in a wild closing phase to kick off Matchday 17 of the 3. Liga. Despite a lackluster performance, it was Marek Janssen who scored the late 1-1 (0-0) equalizer for RWE. Shortly before that, Ahmet Arslan had missed a penalty kick, after the visitors had capitalized on a slip by José-Enrique Ríos Alonso.
The Essen team, with Felix Wienand in goal for the ill Jakob Golz, could only watch in the opening stages as the dominant visitors controlled both the ball and their opponents.
In the sixth minute, the first truly dangerous moment occurred: After Christopher Olivier beat Tobias Kraulich, he crossed into the middle, where Lauri Penna tried to push the ball over the line from close range—Wienand made a brilliant save to prevent Essen from falling behind. Ten minutes later, he was there again: Mansour Ouro-Tagba had beaten Kraulich after a pass from Noah Darvich and fired from a tight angle.
And the Essen team? They didn’t get into the game until just past the 20-minute mark—coincidentally, right when Stuttgart midfielder Darvich had to leave the field due to injury (23rd minute). The home team’s first scoring chances followed promptly: Kaito Mizuta’s header was blocked by a VfB defender, and Tim Moustier’s follow-up shot was deflected decisively out of bounds (28th minute). It was a rare foray forward.
Stuttgart continued to dominate the game and controlled the midfield. That was as far as it went, however, as the RWE defense held firm. The offense, on the other hand, was virtually nonexistent. A telling example: Torben Müsel shot from a good position, but the ball hit Jannik Mause’s arm.
Essen started the second half more aggressively and pressed higher up the field earlier. But VfB soon took control again: the nearly unstoppable Ouro-Tagba hit the post after a cross from Penna (50′).
RWE posed a threat only on counterattacks: Müsel’s shot, set up by Safi, was too weak, however (59th minute). It wasn’t until just past the hour mark that coach Uwe Koschinat’s team managed to establish some presence in the opponent’s half. They nearly succeeded: Müsel missed at the near post after a cross from Jannik Hofmann, and Kraulich’s spinning shot was stopped by Florian Hellstern.
The closing stages, however, belonged to the visitors once again: Efe Korkut suddenly appeared in front of Wienand, but the Golz-appointed referee made a strong save. A minute later, he had no chance: Rios Alonso, the last defender, slipped after being pressured by Mohamed Sankoh. Stuttgart’s substitute capitalized on the opportunity and nutmegged Wienand for a well-deserved 1-0 lead for VfB (80.).
RWE threw everything forward, and Stuttgart gave in! Sankoh tried to block a cross but handled the ball—penalty! Substitute Ahmet Arslan stepped up to take it but was denied by Hellstern, who had guessed the right corner (89′). The resulting corner, however, was capitalized on: Mizuta crossed the second ball into the box, where substitute Janssen nodded it in for the 1–1 equalizer (90′). A fortunate finish for Essen in a wild closing phase.
Fortuna Cologne Defeats Wuppertaler SV – Gladbach Gets Off to a Blistering Start
Fortuna Cologne had no trouble with Wuppertaler SV, while Borussia Mönchengladbach II won at Fortuna Düsseldorf II.
Fortuna Cologne kicked off Matchday 18 of the Regionalliga West with a comfortable 3-0 home win over Wuppertaler SV and thus heads into 2026 as the league leader.
In a low-key first half, it was Kevin Brechmann who put the home team on the path to victory with a long-range shot shortly before halftime. Eighteen-year-old Fotios Adamidis, who surprisingly started in goal in place of Michael Luyambula, was powerless to stop it.
Cologne continued to dominate play after the break, but their attacks were mostly lacking in conviction. Their crosses were rarely on target. It wasn’t until the final quarter-hour that the league leaders pulled away: Enzo Wirtz scored his 11th goal of the season from just under 16 meters to make it 2–0, and David Haider finally sealed the 3–0 victory after a cross from substitute Jonas Michelbrink.
Fortuna Cologne now sits atop the standings with 37 points, though Schalke II (33 points), Rot-Weiß Oberhausen (33), and FC Gütersloh (32)—who face off on Saturday—have each played one fewer game.
Fortuna Cologne: Winkler – Afamefuna (84. Derbali), Fünger, Haider, Garcia, Geerkens, Strauch, Thier (77. Michelbrink), Garcia (77′ Stanilewicz), Bornemann (62′ Al Ghaddioui), Brechmann (84′ Statovci), Wirtz
Wuppertaler SV: Adamidis – Nishimura, Hartmann, Bielitza, Miyamoto – Rebronja, Müller (69′ Arabaci), Aydogan, Bouzraa, Oostwoud (59. Wagemann), Kamo (59. Kleiner)
Goals: 1:0 Brechmann (43.), 2:0 Wirtz (76.), 3:0 Haider (80.)
Fortuna Düsseldorf II – Borussia Mönchengladbach II 1:3 (1:3)
Thanks to a lightning-fast start, Borussia Mönchengladbach’s reserve team won 3:1 (3:1) at Fortuna Düsseldorf II.
Lion Schweers (1.) off a corner kick, Fritz Fleck (7.) following a Düsseldorf mistake, and Kilian Sauck (11.) with a curling shot ensured that the young Foals were already leading 3:0 after just under a quarter of an hour.
Hamza Anhari did score an early goal to cut the lead (27th min.), but it didn’t seem to have much of an effect at first. Fortuna worked toward a second goal in the second half, but lacked the necessary intensity. Just past the hour mark, Deniz Bindermann had the best chance when he stepped up to take a penalty kick for a handball—but the outstanding Maximilian Neutgens made the save.
The score remained 1–3, leaving Düsseldorf stuck near the bottom of the table. Gladbach, on the other hand, stays in contention at the top.
Fortuna Düsseldorf II: Czako – Vu (86. Zentler), Brodersen, Egouli, Mirgartz (86. Tönnies), Latza, Savic (34. Nikolaou), Affo, Bindemann (71. Garlipp), Anhari, Quiala Tito
Borussia Mönchengladbach II: Neutgens – Dasbach, Schweers (J.K. Uwakhonye), J. L. Uwakhonye, Cirpan, Fleck, Sauck (70. Berko), Stange, Vidic, Adozi, Michaelis
The other matches of Matchday 18 in the Regionalliga West
FC Gütersloh vs. Rot-Weiß Oberhausen (Saturday, 2:00 p.m.)
FC Schalke 04 II vs. SC Wiedenbrück
SV Rödinghausen – Sportfreunde Siegen
1. FC Köln II – 1. FC Bocholt
Borussia Dortmund II – SC Paderborn II (4 p.m.)
Bonner SC – VfL Bochum II (Sunday, 2 p.m.)
Disgruntled Stuttgart II Coach – “The crowd was very quiet”
VfB Stuttgart’s U23 team impressively demonstrated at Rot-Weiss Essen why they are among the strongest teams in the 3. Liga.
No! VfB Stuttgart’s reserve team was not satisfied with the 1-1 draw at Rot-Weiss Essen. The Bundesliga club’s reserve team’s performance was too dominant to end up conceding a goal so late in the game.
“It was a top-notch game for us. We played it out really well and had great chances. That’s why we’re very unhappy with the 1-1 draw. We didn’t let them intimidate us and stuck to our game plan,” Mansour Ouro-Tagba told “Magenta Sport.”
The player on loan from 1. FC Köln, who had scored five goals in the six games leading up to the Essen match, caused major problems for Rot-Weiss. “Yes, I had my chances. As a forward, you always think you have to keep going because the next chance will come. Unfortunately, I didn’t manage to score,” said the 20-year-old Togolese national team player.
His coach wasn’t entirely satisfied with the draw in Essen either. Nico Willig summed it up: “I’m not happy with the 1-1 draw. We played a great away game. For 87 minutes, we kept the opponent far away from our goal. There were no critical situations in front of our net. That was strong. Unfortunately, it only lasted until the 87th minute.”
The way we played has something to do with self-confidence. The crowd was very quiet, and I think that speaks in our favor.
Nico Willig
The fact that Stuttgart played with such maturity in Essen-Bergeborbeck didn’t surprise the VfB II coach at all. The fact that the Hafenstraße cauldron wasn’t a cauldron this Friday evening, on the other hand, did: but the visitors made sure of that.
” The way we played has a lot to do with self-confidence. The crowd was very quiet, and I think that speaks in our favor. We just needed to be a little more effective; then next time we’ll score two goals and head home as winners,” emphasized Willig, whose talented Stuttgart squad has accumulated 26 points after 17 matchdays and trails Rot-Weiss Essen by just four points.
For VfB Stuttgart II, which is now unbeaten in three games, the remaining matches this year include a home game against Hansa Rostock and then a season-ending trip to VfL Osnabrück. It remains to be seen whether the VfB prospects can silence the crowd at the Bremer Brücke as well. p>That’s why debut goal-scorer Vitalie Becker celebrated with his coach
With his debut goal, Vitalie Becker helped FC Schalke 04 secure its eleventh win of the season at Fortuna Düsseldorf. The 20-year-old thanks his coach.
Next matchday, next win, next celebration. Things couldn’t be going any better for FC Schalke 04 in the 2. Bundesliga. On Friday evening, the Royal Blues celebrated a 2-0 (1-0) away victory at Fortuna Düsseldorf in front of 20,000 traveling fans and will thus finish Matchday 15 at the top of the table.
Vitalie Becker played a major role in this, sealing the deal in the 81st minute to seal the deal with his 2–0 goal in a match where Fortuna Düsseldorf, despite being a man down, still had a chance to equalize.
Becker had made a good run after a throw-in on the right side and received the ball on the left wing. From there, the 20-year-old cut into the penalty area, outwitted a defender, and finished like a seasoned top striker. It was the left back’s first professional goal. Notably, Becker didn’t run to the fans to celebrate, but to his coach, Miron Muslic. Why?
“I’m very grateful to him,” he told Sky, adding: “I wasn’t really on the radar before the season. The coach gave me the chance, and that’s why I wanted to thank him.”
As recently as this summer, there were rumors of a possible transfer. But Muslic wanted to keep the 20-year-old. “Something like that,” Becker laughed, explaining: “I went through preseason training, performed well, and gave it my all. He liked that, which is why things turned out the way they did.”
Just recently, the coach praised the development of the junior national team player, whom he’s been working diligently with. Earlier this week, a video circulated on social media showing Muslic working with Becker on aerial duels and defending high balls. The coach took on the role of the opponent.
“It’s not easy,” Becker said of Muslic, who is older but very physical. “But that’s the good thing about it—it’s close to game situations, and that helps me improve. It’s probably better that he does this because he used to be a forward and has a feel for how the opponent moves. That helps me a lot.”
Currently, this is also helping FC Schalke 04, which—after its eleventh win of the season—already one more than in 2024–2025—can dream of promotion. At least the fans can, because like his teammates, Becker gave the standard response: “We know things are going well. But we’re staying grounded and taking it one game at a time.”
“An incredibly grueling game; we were dominated in many areas”
Rot-Weiss Essen fought hard to earn a lucky point against VfB Stuttgart II shortly before the end. Uwe Koschinat was satisfied with the 1-1 draw.
16,187 spectators came to the stadium on Hafenstraße on Friday evening to watch Rot-Weiss Essen win. Okay—maybe not the 87 fans who came from Stuttgart. They saw a strong young VfB squad.
The RWE fans, too, will remember such highly talented gems as Mansour Ouro-Tagba, Samuele Di Benedetto, Lauri Penna, Noah Darvich, and Efe Korkut—and may continue to follow their careers.
Because what the Stuttgart U23 team showed at Hafenstraße was truly commendable. Bold, skillful, and dominant: that’s how Nico Willig’s team presented itself.
No wonder he had a hard time accepting the 1–1 draw. He told “Magenta Sport”: “I’m not satisfied with the 1–1. We played a great away game. For 87 minutes, we kept the opponent far away from our goal. There were no critical situations in front of our net. That was strong. Unfortunately, only until the 87th minute.”
That was an incredibly grueling game for us. We were dominated in many areas. It was very exhausting for the team to constantly chase after Stuttgart during their many long stretches of possession. A point like this is definitely worth something at this stage of the season
Uwe Koschinat
Uwe Koschinat, on the other hand, was satisfied with the closing stages. Once again, he proved he had a knack for making the right substitutions by bringing on Marek Janssen. First, Ahmet Arslan missed a penalty kick, and in the very next play, substitute Janssen converted a cross to make it 1–1—his third goal as a substitute and Essen’s twelfth goal of the season off the bench.
Unlike Willig, Koschinat was quite content with the 1–1 draw. Even the RWE coach had to acknowledge Stuttgart’s dominance. “That was an incredibly grueling game for us. We were outplayed in many areas. It was very exhausting for the team to constantly chase after Stuttgart during their many long stretches of possession. A point like this is definitely worth something at this stage of the season,” Koschinat noted.
Felix Wienand, who filled in for the ailing Jakob Golz, received special praise: “He performed very strongly in many situations. He only found out that morning that he would be playing. That was really impressive.”
Fall Champions End the Year Against Wuppertal – League’s Best Defense
In the first 17 games of the Regionalliga West, Fortuna Köln lost only once and surged to first place. The winning streak began against Wuppertaler SV—their upcoming opponent.
