The massive influx of institutional investors into the Bitcoin market is triggering a shift in its growth dynamics. And for good reason: players in the traditional financial sector are already anticipating the inevitable end of BTC’s rally, while retail investors are preparing for an extended bull run. Who will prevail?
Bitcoin at $130,000 in 3 to 6 months
Is Bitcoin currently experiencing its final bull cycle, following the pattern of its previous historic bull runs? The question arises in light of the massive influx of institutional investors, which Goldman Sachs analysts described as early as 2021 as “the key to creating a certain type of stability in the market.”
This situation is regularly studied by the analytics firm Glassnode, in partnership with the institutional division of the cryptocurrency exchange platform Coinbase, as part of the quarterly “Charting Crypto” report, this time titled “Navigating Uncertainty.”
This survey was conducted between September 17 and October 3 among more than 120 investors—both institutional and retail—worldwide, with the aim of identifying trends in the cryptocurrency market, such as the bullish outlook still in place for the BTC price in the coming months.
This is an issue on which institutional and retail investors seem to agree. Indeed, optimism prevails with a large majority—67% of institutional investors and 62% of retail investors—expecting BTC to reach $130,000 in 3 to 6 months.
What is the forecast for Bitcoin over the next 3 to 6 months?
Is this the end of the bull run or the beginning of a new bull market?
This consensus on the target price, however, clashes with a very different view regarding Bitcoin’s trajectory beyond this upcoming historic peak. Indeed, retail investors generally believe that this rally is part of a more sustainable bull market, now free from the four-year halving cycle.
For their part, 45% of institutional investors envision a more mixed scenario, with a bull market that is already on the verge of shifting to a bearish trend after a “final surge.” The greatest risk for the coming months is very clearly—for both camps—persistent macroeconomic uncertainty.
What phase of the bull market are we in?
David Duong, head of research at Coinbase Institutional, remains optimistic, however, citing “strong liquidity, a favorable macroeconomic environment, and encouraging regulatory developments.” This presents an opportunity for Bitcoin to “exceed market expectations.”
In terms of monetary policy, we expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut rates twice more this quarter, which could prompt investors to reallocate a portion of the $7 trillion currently held in money market funds.
David Duong
Regarding the current slowdown in Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), he believes this sector will still represent “a significant source of demand over the coming quarter.” Nevertheless, he acknowledges that “the investment environment remains complex,” particularly with the shutdown of U.S. institutions.
