While the Polyglobe tool allows users to bet on all of Polymarkets’ geopolitical prediction markets via a map, those related to war raise questions. Are such features ethical?
Polyglobe lets you bet on global conflicts via an interactive map
Among the major trends of 2025, prediction markets hold a prominent place by allowing bets on just about anything. “Anything” is precisely the issue at hand, with a certain category of bets highlighted in recent days by Numerama.
Indeed, Pentagon Pizza Watch has developed Polyglobe, an interactive virtual globe displaying all geopolitical bets from around the world available on Polymarket.
Theoretically, the feature can be particularly interesting, offering an instant geographic overview of prediction markets such as “Will Anaïs Belouassa-Cherifi win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?” or “Will the Bank of England keep interest rates unchanged ahead of its February 2026 meeting?”
The flip side is that this tool also allows users to visualize numerous armed conflicts around the world, making very real wars—such as the one in Ukraine—seem like strategy games:
Overview of bets related to the war in Ukraine on Polymarket
In the example above, each blue dot corresponds to a prediction market such as “Will Russia capture Lyman by 2025?” or “Will Russia enter Toretske before December 31?” Here, the focus is on Ukraine, but similar bets can be found for many conflicts, particularly in the Middle East.
Consequently, several issues can be highlighted. Would it be appropriate to ban such bets when human lives are at stake? In a decentralized and censorship-resistant world, such an idea would be counterproductive, but the fact that users create and use prediction markets like these raises serious moral questions.
Furthermore, if anyone is to blame, who is at fault? For example, Pentagon Pizza Watch’s Polyglobe tool simply maps bets available on Polymarket. While Polymarket does not allow users to create their own markets—these are actually added by the team in response to sufficient demand on X or Discord.
In fact, Polyglobe has been live since September, and the questionable bets highlighted in this article are not new either. Nevertheless, they demonstrate the excesses to which certain players may resort when it comes to making money.
