In 2026, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is more likely to fall below $45,000 than exceed $120,000 again. Spotlight on investor predictions.
Where will Bitcoin (BTC) be headed in 2026?
For several weeks now, we have been expressing our fears about a possible bear market. Over the weekend, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell sharply again, dragging the rest of the cryptocurrency market down with it. By breaking below the $85,000 to $95,000 range, which we have highlighted several times, the scenario of a bear market now seems obvious.
The question now is: how far will prices fall?
For the time being, the low point is set at $74,660, according to TradingView data, and beyond technical analysis, prediction markets can give a good idea of investor sentiment.
On X, Kalshi’s account states that analysts “predict that Bitcoin will reach a low of $59,000.”
On Polymarket, bettors believe that it is “now more likely that Bitcoin will fall below $45,000 than rebound to $120,000.”
Indeed, the associated prediction market on Polymarket currently gives BTC a 26% chance of returning to $120,000 during the year, compared to a 31% chance of falling below $45,000:
Beyond the low point of the bear market, which could indeed be reached during the year, or hypothetically already reached, past experience has also shown us that BTC has gone through periods of consolidation before rebounding sustainably.
Thus, this inability to accurately predict the market can give rise to dollar cost averaging (DCA) strategies, allowing you to smooth out your average purchase price.
