TAO, Bittensor’s cryptocurrency, seemed to have been neglected throughout the summer season, overshadowed by the craze for DEX perp and the revenue-sharing narrative. Is it time for AI to make a comeback in the crypto market?
The AI narrative is dead, long live the AI narrative!
It’s Thursday, October 16, 2025, and the price of TAO is hovering around $400.
Our last technical analysis of TAO was on April 17, 2025, when the asset was trading around $230. At the time, we anticipated a potential rebound in TAO, heralding a new bullish phase. The market confirmed this hypothesis with a peak reached on May 12, 2025, at around $500.
While the echoes of an AI-related speculative bubble are attracting more and more followers within the global investor community, a slowdown in this same narrative was clearly felt within the crypto market.
Indeed, TAO, the undisputed leader in this dynamic, has been in a consolidation phase since the beginning of 2025 and has benefited little from a summer season marked by strong growth in certain projects.
Capital seemed to be turning more towards DEXs (decentralized exchanges specializing in derivatives), driven by a growth model based on revenue sharing, with the aim of generating constant buying pressure on their native asset.
On October 10, 2025, just before the massive and widespread liquidation of the crypto market, TAO recorded an all-time high in open interest, even though its price remained far from its historic highs.
The rest is well known: the liquidations led to a sharp drop in prices and a fall of around 50% in open contracts on the derivatives markets.
While the situation is tending to stabilize, fluctuations in open interest remain particularly pronounced, a sign that some speculators are still looking for the trade that will allow them to offset the losses suffered at the end of last week.
The context therefore remains perilous and could continue to cause erratic movements in the market until it regains its balance.
With a market capitalization of around $3.84 billion, TAO currently ranks 45th in the world. The performance indicators below highlight a short-term correction, while a moderate recovery is emerging over longer time frames.
The title may seem surprising, but while reworking the TAO chart this morning, I felt the need to take a step back to reframe the asset.
Indeed, the event of October 10 left behind a very significant wick, which gave few players the opportunity to position themselves.
Although we may question the technical legitimacy of this chart element, we must acknowledge that the price movement perfectly clears the lows of April 2025 and August 2024.
The ensuing reaction, which was very positive, demonstrates the presence of buyers at these key levels and suggests a return to the multi-year range between $200 and $750.
We could stick with this technical reaction and aim for a return to the highs. However, Tuesday’s rejection of the median of the range around $466 may sow doubt, as this is a level that must be regained in order to envisage a bullish continuation.
In the shorter term, we can see that since April 2025, the asset has been trading in a second, narrower range between $300 and $450, which also corresponds to the area between the quarter of the multi-year range and its equilibrium.
In this workspace, the pivot point at $387, which we are currently working on, is key to a polarity reinforced by the 50-week moving average and last week’s close.
To maintain the idea of breaking through this zone and unlocking the TAO’s full upside potential, the bulls must manage to keep prices above this threshold.
If Bittensor’s crypto closes below this level again on a weekly basis in the next two weeks, then a return to around $300 should be seriously considered.
In summary, TAO is showing interesting signs of recovery, but derivatives data shows some turbulence that could take a few days to stabilize and produce organic price movements. However, the long-term chart shows interesting signals, which will nevertheless require a break above $466 to consider a return to historic highs.
So, do you think Bittensor’s crypto can break through $466? Feel free to give us your opinion in the comments.
Have a great day, and we’ll see you very soon for a new technical analysis.
