The year 2025 looks set to mark the end of the regulatory wilderness period that began for Ripple in 2020. This is a very favorable situation for the XRP cryptocurrency, with more than 90% of holders currently in profit. But will it last?
Over 90% of XRP holders are in profit
The unprecedented regulatory opening in the United States implies a significant change in momentum for the cryptocurrency sector. This logic has led to unprecedented adoption in economic and financial circles, but also to the resurgence of certain projects that had previously been mistreated by local authorities.
In this field, Ripple is undoubtedly a textbook case. This historic crypto project was subject to regulatory proceedings initiated in 2020 by Gary Gensler’s SEC. That era is now over, and it seems to be opening the door to an explosive renaissance.
This is an opportunity for long-time holders of the XRP cryptocurrency to realize their hopes for returns that have been clearly long overdue. This is particularly true with the recent validation of an all-time high above $3.65, which erases its previous record, set in 2018, once and for all.
According to data from the analysis site Glassnode, 94% of XRP holders are currently in profit with a price set at around $3. And with good reason, as the price of XRP has risen by more than 500% since October last year, if we take that price as a reference point.
Should we expect an imminent decline?
This good news for XRP holders could well hide a slightly darker future. Indeed, this kind of spectacular rise often requires an equally intense period of correction.
If we look at historical data, every time XRP has reached this high level of profitability, a very significant decline has followed. A trend reversal estimated at over 95% in 2018 and around 85% in 2021 could well strike again.
Also according to data from the Glassnode website, XRP’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator — which estimates the difference between its unrealized gains and losses — has just entered the green zone identified as “belief-denial.” This step preceded the bearish reversals of 2018 and 2021.
The current profitability of XRP holders could quickly turn into a large-scale profit-taking strategy. This is especially true if the NUPL indicator reaches the “euphoria – greed” level for the first time since 2018.
Even if the market context — and its legendary volatility — has definitely changed with the arrival of institutional investors, this could mean a significant decline for XRP in the resistance zone between $2.20 and $2.40, representing a drop of at least 20% from its current price.
